Today’s high of 48 degrees is 15 degrees below the normal high of 63, and this morning’s low of 29 was 13 degrees below the normal low of 42. If you’re like me, you’re probably tired of seeing January temperatures in March.

The eastern half of the country remains trapped in a weather pattern that I discussed in this post, where a warm weather in the western half of the country and a ridge over the north Atlantic contribute to cold Arctic air being pushed into the eastern half of the country.

The good news is that the Pacific North American Pattern, which is responsible for the ridge in the west, is getting ready to transition from being extremely high to dropping below normal, as seen in the following graph from the National Weather Service:

The graph shows that we had a negative PNA in the late part of December and the first part of January, corresponding to the extremely warm temperatures at the beginning of the year. A more modest drop in early February matched the slightly warmer than normal temperatures at that time. The extremely high values since March 1st match our recent January like temperatures.

If the predicted changes hold true, the arctic air intrusion will move further to the west, causing colder weather in the Dakotas, which have been unseasonably mild for this time of year, and allow the weather in the Southeast to be influenced more by the Gulf of Mexico, meaning warmer weather.

Still, I don’t see a forecast of above 70 degrees until at least March 20th, the first official day of Spring. We continue to be threatened by fast-moving weather patterns that could bring a chance of snow. It looks like we dodged the bullet for tonight, but additional short wave activity will return on Friday, and again possibly on Saturday. I’m more worried about a potential storm around St. Patrick’s day that will probably bring additional snow to the Northeast, but could affect us.

Do you realize that New York City is getting ready to experience its fourth year in a row with over 40 inches of snow — a modern record? Part of the reason for the recent concerns about high gasoline prices is due to the extremely cold weather, not only here in the United States, but in Europe as well. So much for global warming.

With the start of the new month, it’s time to take a look back at February, and a look ahead to March. Here in Lawrenceville, we had a low of 26.9 degrees on the 11th, and a high of 73.2 on the 22nd, with a mean temperature of 47.4 degrees, about two degrees warmer than normal.

For precipitation, we recorded 5.3 inches of rain, or about half an inch more than normal, when you figure in averages for Atlanta and Athens. About two inches of that came in on President’s day, when the year’s first severe thunderstorms and hail pounded the area. Overall, though, we’re still about an inch and a half below normal precipitation, due to the extremely dry weather in January.

I dutifully looked at the National Weather Service’s updated monthly forecast this morning, and saw what looked a lot like the maps I posted back on February 17th. The main difference is that it’s now predicted to be colder than normal out through Arkansas and Missouri, where before it was only supposed to be colder in Louisiana and southern Mississippi.

What I found more interesting was this graphic of predicted 6-10 day temperatures:

The entire eastern half of the country will be colder than normal, and the western half will be warmer than normal.

This unusual situation is being caused by what the forecasters say is “a high PNA combined with a negative NAO and a blocking ridge over Iceland”. Translated into English, that means that high pressure aloft over the Pacific Northwest forces the cold, Arctic air down over the Great Plains until it lands at the East coast, where it is blocked by the high pressure over the North Atlantic. Right now, there is no end to this pattern in sight - we should continue through mid-March with highs only reaching the low 60s, and the reason we’ll be that warm is that the sun is getting fairly high in the sky, and providing daytime heating. At night, it will still go down to around freezing.

So, what about precipitation? Forecasts for the month call for equal chances of above or below normal precipitation north Georgia for the month. A storm later this week is likely to pass to our south and spoil spring break in Florida, and models show another chance of wet weather on the 8th, the 12th, and again around St. Patrick’s day. Keep in mind, though, that models that far out can change considerably within a few days, so this is by no means definite. I still think that we have a chance to see some more wintry weather, although it may turn out to be no more than this morning’s flurries.