Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen, with 115 MPH winds, making it a category 3 storm. It’s likely that the storm will continue to strengthen before making landfall late Monday. Possible wind speed when the storm strikes the Gulf Coast is around 135 MPH, making Katrina a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

The big change in the forecast over the last 36 hours has the storm making landfall further west of what was previously predicted. The storm is currently forecast to make landfall over New Orleans, Louisiana. Earlier forecasts had it in the Florida panhandle. The landfall location is particularly important given the strength of this storm, and the proximity of oil wells and refineries in the area. If the storm hits the wrong spot, well, if you think gas prices are high now, just wait.

As far as the impact on the Atlanta area, we’ve gone from being on the right-hand side of the storm’s center, and predicted minimal effects, to being in the center of the storm’s path, which would bring the most wind damage, to being on the east side of the storm, which could bring bands of heavy rain to Georgia; similar to what happened with Cindy and Dennis earlier this year.

While forecast models are becoming more consistent with the predicted landfall location, I think that there is still some variability on what will happen with the storm’s interior path. Two recent forecasts I’ve seen still predict the storm’s center passing through North Georgia. The exact path the storm takes, and how fast it curves back east after making landfall, depends on what happens with upper air patterns now over the Midwest states. As with most forecasts, getting an exact prediction more then three days out is almost impossible.

So, enjoy the early part of the weekend, before we begin to see the approach of Katrina, but keep an eye on the forecast, and be ready for the possibility of some nasty weather for Monday and Tuesday.

At 3:30 PM on Thursday, Katrina officially became a hurricane, with wind speeds of 75 miles per hour. At 5 PM, the center of the storm was located about 15 miles off the Florida East coast, between Ft. Lauderdale and Boca Raton. The satellite image below was taken just before landfall, around 4:15 PM.

The expected path of the storm continues to place it south of the metro Atlanta area. The image to the right is the Weather Service’s estimate of total precipitation between 8 AM today, and 8 AM Tuesday. As you can see, most of the rain will be to the east of the storm’s track.

Metro Atlanta could end up with as little as a quarter inch of rain, or as much as several inches depending on the storm’s path. Areas to our east, including Savannah and Augusta could end up with six to nine inches of rain by the time the storm moves to our north late Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Katrina continues to gain strength as it approaches the Fort Lauderdale/Palm Beach Florida coast. This morning’s wind speeds were near 60 MPH, and landfall is expected sometime late tonight, or early Friday morning.

The picture, courtesy of NOAA, shows Katrina at about 8 AM eastern time, centered over the Bahamas.

While Katrina’s expected path once it exits the west coast of Florida early Saturday morning has changed to a more northerly and easterly direction, forecasters are still unsure exactly where she’ll end up. One model puts the storm track along northeast Florida, while another positions the second landfall close to the Alabama border.

Based on the current projected track, however, the storm is likely to have less of an effect on the Atlanta metro area than either of the two storms that approached the area back in July. The most intense wind and rain from a hurricane occurs to the east of the storm’s center. Given that Katrina’s center looks like it will pass to our southeast, we may avoid the worst of the storm, while southeast Georgia bears the worst of it on Monday.

After more than a month with almost no tropical weather in the area, it looks like Tropical Depression 12 could change things this weekend. Ever since Dennis came through the area in July, succeeding tropical storms have either been Mexican only events, or have moved up the Atlantic Ocean, never posing a threat to land. However, the soon to become Tropical Storm Katrina is taking dead aim at the central Florida coast, and could become a hurricane before it makes landfall along the Gulf Coast next week.

Currently located about 270 miles southeast of the Florida coast, the storm boasts winds of 35 MPH. It is expected to hit the East coast of Florida early Friday morning, and then travel across the state, exiting near the Tampa Bay area early Saturday. After that, the storm will move across the open Gulf waters, where it could gain hurricane strength on Sunday.

It’s still unclear exactly how this storm will affect North Georgia and the metro Atlanta area. Computer models show different solutions for direction and intensity, and until the storm becomes more defined, we’ll just have to wait.

In the meantime, cooler, drier air remains just to our north, as we continue to experience the three H’s of summer weather. However, the boundary should push into our area sometime later today or early tomorrow, bringing a few nice days of weather, with less rain, heat, and humidity. That should last through the weekend, until we begin to feel the effects of Katrina early next week.