Early September marks the halfway point of the 2007 tropical season, and things are certainly busy, with more on the way. So far this year, we’ve had six named storms in the Atlantic basin, which is well above average. Especially notable is that there have been two category five systems, Dean and Felix, both striking the Mexican/South American coast.

The picture below was taken about 8 AM, and shows Felix striking the South American coast near the Nicaragua Honduras border:

Also today, Hurricane Henriette is making landfall on the other side of Mexico, and is forecast to head towards New Mexico and Arizona, bringing heavy rainfall to that area.

Of more concern to those of us on the Eastern seaboard is a tropical disturbance located off of the Georgia coast. This low pressure system has been milling around since last week, and has the potential to develop into a tropical storm that could bring rain to the Mid-Atlantic and New England states. The picture below shows what several models were predicting what the storm’s path could be:

Both this system and Hurricane Felix are affecting the weather in Georgia, as we are now centered between the two storms’ low pressure. This is bringing us the nice weather we have seen over the past few days. Depending on what happens with these storms, we are likely to continue to see dry weather, even if the system off the coast becomes better organized.

So what to expect as the tropical season goes on? Dr. Gray and his team have issued an updated hurricane forecast (PDF) for the rest of the season and there doesn’t seem to be any significant changes from what was earlier predicted. The team continues to predict 15 named storms, including Felix, but has dropped the number of hurricanes predicted from eight to seven. They are still predicting four intense hurricanes — we are now halfway there with Dean and Felix.

The forecast notes that through August 31st, observed tropical activity accounts for 40% of what would be seen during an average hurricane season. In a normal year, only 33% of tropical activity would be recorded during August.

August was a record-breaking month in Georgia. In Atlanta, the first 26 days of the month had high temperatures above 90 degrees, and there were nine days where the temperature went above 100, tying a record set in 1980 for the most days in a year with temperatures above 100 degrees. For the month, the average temperature was 85.6 degrees, 6.7 degrees above normal. The high temperature of 104, set on August 23rd, was not only the record-breaker for the day, but for the entire month. You would have to go back to 1980 to see temperatures this warm.

Here in Lawrenceville, the average temperature for August was only 81.3, and the warmest day was the 9th, when the temperature reached 101.5. That’s still warmer then normal. One reason the average temperature was cooler than in Atlanta is that on many days, the overnight low temperature stayed lower than in the city. I recorded six days with overnight lows less than 70, while Atlanta recorded none. In Gainesville, the average temperature was 84.6, 7.1 degrees above normal, and in Athens, the average was 85.2, 6.9 degrees above normal August temperatures in the Classic City.

Believe it or not, but the official precipitation records for August 2007 in Atlanta will show the city received 95% of its normal rainfall of 3.67 inches. 3.48 inches of rain was recorded at Hartsfield-Jackson Airport during the month, but over two inches of that occurred in the last four days of the month, and most of the rest during the last week. Because August rainfall is typically driven by thunderstorms, the amount of rain you got depended on where you were. I recorded a scant 1.52 inches during the month, while Athens recorded less than half its normal monthly total, with 1.72 inches. Gainesville had 3.17 inches of rain during August.

September is a month of rapid change climate-wise, as we begin to see shorter days and lower daytime and evening temperatures. This month, however, is likely to be warmer than normal, with the Climate Prediction Center calling for at least a 33% chance of a warm September, and an even greater likelihood of hot weather for the southeast corner of the state.

Things are busy in the tropics, by the way, with three active named storms. In the Eastern Pacific basin, Gil is beginning to lose strength, while Henriette is expected to gain strength, and eventually bring wet weather to the southwest US. In the Atlantic, Felix became a named storm this morning. He looks like he is going to follow roughly the same path as Dean did, but track slightly to the south.