With the start of the 2006 hurricane season less than two months away, Dr. Gray of Colorado State University has released his 2006 hurricane predictions. If Dr. Gray and his team are right, we’re in for another volatile weather season.

For the season, which runs from June 1 through November 30th, Dr. Gray predicts 17 named storms, with 9 hurricanes, 5 of which will be intense, or categories 3-5. In comparison, last year, the center predicted 13 storms, and 7 hurricanes, well under what actually happened. Overall, the probability of hurricane landfall in the United States is 55% above average.

The center predicts an 81% chance of a hurricane striking the US Coast, with a 64% chance of striking the east coast, and a 47% chance of a strike on the Gulf coast. This is strikingly similar to early predictions by Joe Bastardi of Accuweather, who also believes that the east coast is likely to get hit in 2006.

Dr. Gray also addresses the issue of the effects of global warming on the large number of hurricanes we’ve seen over the last several years. Like other hurricane experts, including Dr. Max Mayfield of the National Hurricane Center, he believes that we are at the middle of a long range pattern of greater than normal hurricane activity that began in 1995. This pattern, called the Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation. This phenomenon is driven by the salinity of the Atlantic, and is believed to have nothing to do with global temperature change.

Late Spring is a time of rapidly changing weather, and the last two weeks and the week coming up are perfect examples. Completely different weather patterns highlight the old saw, if you don’t like the weather, stick around, and it will change.

East coast weather the week before Memorial Day was dominated by a major upper level low pressure system in New England that brought in cold air from Canada, and for Atlanta, kept temperatures closer to what we would see in mid April rather than late May. May ended the month with only 1.34 inches of rain, less than half of what we would normally expect. Temperatures were on the cool side as well, with the average temperature about 3 degrees below normal.

Then, beginning (natch) over the holiday weekend, the weather pattern began a big change, with a cold front from the northeast running up against a stationary front stalled across middle Georgia. This caused a wedge situation, with cool temperatures, seemingly never-ending light rain, and winds out of the east. The National Weather Service reported that the first three days of June were among the coolest ever.

At the beginning of the weekend, forecasters were concerned about a tropical wave bringing in heavy rains to the Atlanta area. However, a weak high pressure system over the area kept the rain to our south, and left us with typical Atlanta summer weather - hazy, hot and humid, with not many changes predicted for most of the upcoming week. As is typical for an Atlanta summer, there is a chance of popup thundershowers throughout the week.

It’s all part of the normal shift to our summer weather pattern. The tropical weather pattern is under way somewhat early this year. Dr. Gray has issued an update to his hurricane activity forecast, increasing the number of named storms from 13 to 15, and the number of hurricanes from 7 to 8.

The National Weather Service long range forecast through the end of the third week in June calls for above normal temperatures, and above normal precipitation.

A change in the Southern jet stream to a milder pattern, an upper level low off the Atlantic coast, and high pressure currently centered over Georgia combined this past week to create some wonderful weather for Gwinnett county. Despite a little rain overnight on Tuesday, we’ve had quiet weather that is expected to continue for the next week.

This spring has been slightly cooler than normal. With the absence of any really warm temperatures (there has only been one day with the temperature above 80 degrees this month), and overnight lows in the 40s, the cherries, dogwoods, and azaleas have remained in flower, adding to the beauty of Atlanta’s April.

While things will get a bit warmer the week of the 18th, and dew points and humidity will slowly rise through the week, it’s likely that we won’t see precipitation until sometime late next weekend. After that, another calm and cooler than normal week will round out the month.

As much as you might wish that the April weather would stay year round, it’s only a matter of time before the weather shifts again to the normal summer pattern, with warm, humid air from the Gulf coast giving us our normal sultry summer weather. And, of course, the hurricane season begins again on the first of June. Dr. Gray at Colorado State University has issued the April update of his Atlantic Hurricane forecast, and it calls for 13 named storms this year, with 7 hurricanes. This is about 140 percent higher than “normal” conditions. Last year, Dr. Gray’s April prediction of 14 storms and 8 hurricanes was exactly on the money, although he underestimated the intensity of the storms.