We’re almost two months into the official hurricane season, which runs from June 1st to November 30th, and so far, we’ve had only two named storms. Given the various predictions for between 13 and 17 named storms, it may seem to some that we’re not going to make it.

Keep in mind that the strongest part of the hurricane season is from mid-August to mid-October, when the Atlantic Ocean is at its warmest. With the exception of 2005 and 2003, when we had seven storms by the end of July, for the past ten years, we’ve seen two tropical storms each year before August 1st, except for 1998 and 2004, when there weren’t any storms at all in the first two months of the season, so we’re on schedule.

The approach of the strongest part of the hurricane season brings a reminder from the Georgia State Climatologist David Stooksbury that Georgia could be severely impacted should a Katrina-like storm hit the coast. In an article posted yesterday on the Georgia FACES website, Stooksbury reports that UGA students created a model of the storm surge from Hurricane Katrina, and then projected it along the Georgia coast, where it would cause a 20-30 foot storm surge.

“A storm surge of this magnitude would wash over the barrier islands and lead to massive flooding along the coast. Almost all of Georgia east of I-95 will be under water with a category 3 hurricane. Areas west of I-95 will see major flooding, too.”

The article also explodes some Georgia hurricane myths, and offers advice on preparedness.

Next week brings updates to the hurricane forecasts by the National Weather Service and Dr. Gray’s team over at Colorado State University, and it will be interesting to see what changes, if any, we see in the predictions.

Dr. Gray has written an op-ed article for this morning’s Wall Street Journal examining if the increases we’ve seen in the intensity of hurricanes recently is being caused by global warming. He compares two long term periods from the early 20th century and late 20th/early 21st, and concludes that the number of landfalling hurricanes in the US declined, despite the increase in carbon dioxide in the air.

Instead of following the politically correct line on global warming, Dr. Gray analyzes the patterns of ocean currents and salinity in the Atlantic over time, and concludes,

“The warming theorists — most of whom, no doubt, earnestly believe that human activity has triggered nature’s wrath — have the ears of the news media. But there is another plausible explanation, supported by decades of physical observation. The spate of recent destructive hurricanes may have little or nothing to do with greenhouse gases and climate change, and everything to do with the Atlantic Ocean’s currents.”

If you’re not a Wall Street Journal Online subscriber, you can read the article via Google News. Click this link, and choose the article “Hurricanes and Hot Air”.

The team at Colorado State University has released its updated forecast for the 2007 hurricane season, which starts on June 1st. Primarily due to the rapid dissipation of the winter’s El Nino conditions, the number of predicted hurricanes has increased from the forecast made last December.

In many ways, the forecast is strikingly similar to the one made a year ago for the 2006 season. The prediction is now for 17 named storms, and nine hurricanes. Five of those are expected to be major category 3-5 hurricanes.

The difference between this year and last is where the storms might strike. While last year, there was a 64% chance of a storm striking the east coast, this year, the chance is down to 50%. There is also a 49% chance of a storm hitting the Gulf coast, and above average chances of a major hurricane landfall in the Caribbean Sea. Overall, Dr. Gray and his team expect that the season will be almost twice as busy as the long term average.

Dr. Gray admitted that last year’s forecast fell short, primarily because of the unseen El Nino when the forecast was made. In fact, no hurricanes made landfall in the United States during 2006 (although there were a few tropical storms that some forecasters, including Joe Bastardi, thought should have been classified as hurricanes. There have only been two periods since 1945 where no hurricanes made landfall in the US over two consecutive years, and the forecast team doesn’t expect to break that record in 2007.

I’ll report on other hurricane season predictions as they become available.

We’re over six months away from the start of the 2007 hurricane season, but that’s not too early for the intrepid forecasters at Colorado State University to issue their first outlook for what we might expect next year.

The Extended Range Hurricane Forecast For 2007 predicts 14 named storms , with seven hurricanes. Three of those hurricanes are likely to be intense category 3, 4, or 5 storms. This compares with normals of 9.6 storms, 5.9 hurricanes, and 2.3 intense hurricanes on average during the 1950-2000 period.

They predict a 64% chance of a major hurricane somewhere along the US coastline, and an above average major landfall risk in the Caribbean.

The above-average forecast still calls for fewer storms than predicted for 2006, although that forecast turned out to be a bust. They are predicting that the El Nino conditions that ultimately reduced the intensity of this year’s season will be gone by the time the 2007 season officially starts on June 1st.

Now that the 2006 hurricane season is officially over, let’s face the facts. Despite early predictions of a season that would rival the number of storms and possible the damage seen in 2005, 2006 turned out to be a lighter than normal year. We had nine named storms, as opposed to the 15 or so predicted, and five hurricanes, as opposed to the nine that were forecast. No hurricanes hit the US coast this year. Dr. Gray described it well in his seasonal recap when he said, “Our 2006 seasonal hurricane forecast was not successful.”

Forecasters were unable to see the El Nino pattern that emerged this summer, which tends to reduce the number of hurricanes. Nor did they see the relatively dry weather in the Atlantic, including the presence of dust storms over Africa that retarded tropical development. On the bright side, the prediction of storms affecting the Atlantic coast, even though there weren’t many of them, was right on.

This season also had its share of rainmakers that either were never declared to be official storms by the National Hurricane Center, or were declared extratropical prior to causing their most intense damage. You may remember Ernesto causing a state of emergency throughout Pennsylvania, although by the time it got there, it was no longer a storm.

In any case, we’re now free to fret about the possibility of snow this winter, but be advised, the first preliminary forecast for the 2007 season is just a week away. I’ll keep you informed.

A few quick weather ideas today …

The hurricane season starts tomorrow, and Drs Gray and Klotzbach of Colorado State University have updated their hurricane forecast for the year … somewhat. They haven’t changed their ideas at all from their original forecast last December, calling for 17 named storms, and 5 intense hurricanes. That’s slightly over what the National Hurricane Center is calling for, and more than what Accuweather’s Joe Bastardi is calling for, with 3 major storms making landfall, with the most activity in the Texas area early in the season, and the Carolinas and East Coast late in the season.

Meanwhile, protesters are at the headquarters of NOAA in Maryland calling for the resignation of National Hurricane Center Max Mayfield because he refuses to endorse the idea that global warming is causing the increase in tropical activity. Mayfield’s view is that the uptick in hurricane activity is the result of a multi decade cycle that has repeated itself over the years, and happens to be in a strong phase now. He does not believe that global warming has anything to do with it. Accweather’s Bastardi has a similar opinion in his article from the Durham Herald Sun.

Metro Atlanta may get its first real chance of significant rainfall since back on May 10th on Thursday and Friday. After spending the last two weeks dominated by a high pressure ridge, the trough that had been further west is moving east, and could bring some rainfall, although it appears the worst of it will be further north. After all the heat over the last ten days, I’ll be glad for some rain.

And, the weather service has updated its forecast for June. They predict that warmer than normal temperatures will dominate much of the southern plains states, from Arizona, New Mexico, and west Texas north to the Canadian border. Below normal rainfall is predicted in an oval centered over Nebraska, and extending southeast to the Tennessee-Alabama border. For Georgia, the weather service is calling for equal chances of above or below normal temperatures and precipitation.

The shorter term forecast is for below normal temperatures and normal to below normal rainfall in north Georgia from the 6th to the 14th. They have been advertising this drop to below normal temps for the last few days, and it seems like they’re pushing it back much the way they kept predicting the current warm spell to start in early May, and then pushed it back until it finally got here. We finally got the above normal temperatures, and I suspect that we will see the cool spell as well.