The temperature here in Lawrenceville topped 90 degrees for the first time in 2008 today, with a maximum of 91.4 degrees at 2PM.  In Atlanta, today’s high was only 89.  But in any case, they’ll have another chance tomorrow and indeed for the next week or so, as we are under the influence of an upper level high pressure system that will keep the warmer than normal temperatures around, and probably keep the rain away as well.

All in all, temperatures are running about 6 degrees above normal for early June.  And, this is about the usual time we see 90 degrees — last year we topped 90 on June 6th, in 2006 on May 24th, and in 2005 on June 14th.

Longtime blog reader Morgan Kemp reminds us of the ongoing drought by posting some comments by Georgia climatologist David Stooksbury made at this time last year, when the drought’s effects were really setting in. Actually, we’re doing a bit better this year through May.  While most of Georgia had less than normal rainfall for the month, Atlanta is only 4 inches short of normal for the year, and Athens has had 6.4 inches less than what would be expected.  Through the end of May, Atlanta recorded 18.65 inches of precipitation for 2008, compared to 11.73 inches for the same period in 2007.

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It looks like we could have a record cold temperature this evening/Wednesday morning.  The current record low for April 30th is 40 degrees set back in 1969.  Forecasters are calling for a low of 36 in Lawrenceville, but only 42 for Hartsfield Airport, so it’s going to be close.  The Weather Service has issued a frost advisory for most of the state north of Macon.

The cold air is caused by Canadian high pressure sweeping into the area following last weekend’s rain.  Usually these cold blasts end around the first of April because developing high pressure off the Atlantic Coast (the proverbial Bermuda High) strengthens enough to counteract the approach of the cold front from the north.  Between this round and the cold weather back in the middle of the month, we’re likely to end April with below normal temperatures for the month.  You can be glad you’re not in Chicago or as far south as West Virginia, which have had a late season snowfall.

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Despite a string of several rainy days this month, it looks like January’s rainfall is going to be less than normal, and that isn’t helping the ongoing drought. As of today, the rainfall gauge at Hartsfield Airport stands at 2.24 inches, or 45% of the just over five inches we would expect in a normal January.

Athens is at 43% of normal, and Gainesville is at 34% of normal of what is normally one of the wettest months of the year. With normal rainfall in December, and the colder temperatures causing less evaporation, drought conditions have loosened slightly, as seen in the latest drought map to the right, but there is concern that real problems could arise again next summer.

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With both Atlanta and Athens, Georgia on track to record their driest years ever, it’s becoming ever more important that the area receives sufficient rainfall during the winter months. Continued lack of precipitation could mean that drought conditions in 2008 will be worse than in 2007.

Georgia State Climatologist David Stooksbury writes that while recent rains have helped some in increasing groundwater and stream flows, it’s by no means a break in the drought.

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Georgia State Climatologist David Stooksbury held a press conference today in Athens to discuss the latest Georgia drought conditions, and to explain what he thinks might occur weather-wise over the winter and spring of 2008. Much of what might happen through the next six months depends on the strength of the developing La Nina, including the chances of being able to refill, at least partially, Lakes Lanier and Allatoona.

There is now general agreement that La Nina conditions are developing in the Pacific. La Nina, and her partner El Nino, are descriptions of the two phases of the warmth of the Pacific Ocean surface temperatures compared to normal. In El Nino conditions, temperatures are warmer, while the reverse is true for La Nina. Most climate observers feel that La Nina conditions strengthened in September.

In a press release accompanying the news conference, Stooksbury said,

“The effects of the La Niña pattern differ with its strength. These differences are critical across north and central Georgia, potentially having major impacts on the current drought and the region’s ability to recover this winter and spring.”

If the La Nina conditions remain weak, then there is actually a greater chance of precipitation across extremely north Georgia, and normal precipitation across the piedmont area. In a moderate to strong La Nina, the chance of more than usual precipitation will be limited to the extreme northwest corner of the state. In either case, it’s likely to be warmer and drier over the southern half of the state. You can see the impacts in the image to the right (click on it for a larger version.)

We had best be hoping for a weak La Nina pattern. In the words of Stooksbury,

“If a moderate La Niña pattern develops, there is a high likelihood that north and west Georgia won’t be able to recover from the drought this winter.

The extreme- to exceptional-drought regions of the state may muddle through the winter and early spring. But without significant recharge of the soil moisture, groundwater, streams and reservoirs, conditions next summer could become catastrophic.”