It’s been almost two weeks since I’ve had a chance to post some weather news. This time of year is pretty slow as far as weather goes … it’s a little too early for any real tropical weather activity, and except for the occasional thunderstorm, the forecast is typically hot and humid.

But, the weather does move in patterns, and now it looks like we’re back into the same type of weather we saw in late May, which you may remember was highlighted by a lack of rainfall, with high pressure off the Atlantic keeping any moisture well to our west.

We got somewhat of a break from the dry pattern as the first half of the month ended, although it took an unusual storm from the northeast to do it. And, even then, rainfall was spotty, depending on whether a thunderstorm passed through your neighborhood. Since the first of the week, we’ve seen temperatures in the 90s and low dewpoints, which makes outdoor activity bearable, but keeps the raindrops away.

The Weather Service issued its forecast for July, and the three month outlook for July through September last week, and as indicated by the title of this post, for the Southeast, it’s likely to be hot and dry. July’s outlook proffers warmer than normal temperatures for the east and west coasts, and cooler than normal weather for the nation’s midsection. The Plains states are likely to be the only place in the country with more than average rainfall, although there’s an equal chance of above or below normal precipitation everywhere else except for the mountain west.

The three month outlook amplifies the heat, especially in the southwest. Most of the eastern part of the country has a 40% likelihood of warmer than normal temperatures. Expected tropical weather brings a better chance of rain form much of the east coast during the latter half of the summer.

Tropical storm Barry, along with the recent rains further north have provided some drought relief, particularly for south Georgia and Florida. At right is the drought outlook from mid-May, and the latest outlook, issued last Thursday.

While the portion of the map showing a chances of improvement keeps moving north and west, the drought is spreading north as well, with much of Ohio and Indiana moving into a persistent drought. While I wish no ill will towards our friends in the rust belt, perhaps this movement of the center of the drought northward might mean some relief for the southeast.

Maps Update

You might have noticed the new 12 hour regional forecast on the home page, as well as in the map section of the site. I’ve added the ability to click on the map to view a seven day forecast for the location clicked on, much the same way as clicking on a weather warning map displays active warnings for that location. The forecast map, along with many others, can now be animated, showing the changes in the weather over a several day period.

Tropical Storm Barry came through Georgia on Saturday, however the storm’s path was too far east to bring any benefit to most of the metro Atlanta area. The storm barely made it into Gwinnett County, bringing less than a tenth of an inch of rain. Further south, however, the area between Macon and Statesboro received two months worth of rain in a single day.

This map shows estimated precipitation amounts from the storm, as of 8 AM on Sunday:

Reported rainfall ranged from a trace in Atlanta to 6.48 inches in Kite, which is north of I-16 between Wrightsville and Swainsboro. Other Georgia amounts recorded include:

Alma - 3.60 inches
Athens - 0.49 inches
Augusta - 2.59 inches
Brunswick - 3.06 inches
Covington - 0.25 inches
Dublin - 5.70 inches
Gainesville - 0.09 inches
Macon - 2.31 inches
Savannah - 5.15 inches
Washington - 1.28 inches

So, what’s the good and the bad from the storm? The south Georgia wildfires were diminished, but not put out completely. Middle Georgia farmers may be able to put out long-delayed crops. The Georgia climatologist may delay putting the entire state into a level 3 drought, which would limit outdoor water use to one weekend day per week.

This morning’s Gwinnett Daily Post reports that Gwinnett will likely be put into the extreme drought category, meaning a drought so severe that it normally occurs once every 50 years. While that designation would make official what has become increasingly obvious, it probably won’t affect water restrictions in the county, unless a statewide restriction is issued.

(We’ll give a hat tip here to Wayne Hill, who had the foresight to build a strong water infrastructure during his term as county commission chairman).

Now that Barry has passed through, though, we are going to see some changes towards a more normal summer weather pattern. The tropical system managed to move the high pressure that has been keeping all rain away for most of May out of the way, and that will allow air from the Gulf Coast into the area, bringing Georgia’s normal summertime companions, heat and humidity, into the state, along with a chance of thundershowers. This week, we’ll probably break 90 degrees for the first time in 2007, and the outlook for the next two weeks is for warmer and drier than normal weather. It’s likely to stay hot for the entire month, as well.

Tropical Storm Barry became official at 5 PM on Friday June 1st, the first day of hurricane season. The system was centered 320 miles southwest of Tampa, with 45 MPH winds, and a tropical storm warning was issued for most of the west coast of Florida.

You can follow the storm’s progress here.

Now the question is how much rain the storm will bring. It’s not likely to develop into a hurricane, but looks likely to have an impact on the south Georgia wildfires, and depending on whether it goes east or west, could help with the drought in the rest of Georgia as well.