If you’re a long time Atlantan, you may remember the winter of 1992-1993, especially the end of it. That was the year that the spring race at Atlanta Motor Speedway got snowed out on March 14th, as over a foot of snow blanketed the area in what some called the “Storm of the Century”.

If the Accuweather winter forecast is to be believed, we could see similar conditions this year. Overall, Accuweather is predicting warmer than normal conditions for much of the Plains states, but cooler than normal conditions for the Southeast, including Georgia. Less snow than normal is predicted from the Pacific Northwest through the Dakotas and Minnesota, and more snow than normal is predicted across a broad swath from southern Nevada, through Oklahoma, and then widening from north Georgia northeast through Connecticut. North Georgia could see as much as 150% of normal snow.

The Accuweather folks disagree with the National Weather Service winter forecast, which was updated on October 19th, and calls for warm temperatures across much of the country, and normal temperatures in the Southeast, and wetter than normal conditions from Southern California through Texas, and in Florida and southeast Georgia and South Carolina.

The main difference in determining the two forecasts lies in the ultimate effect of the El Nino period that we are now in. The NWS thinks that will be the major influence on this winter’s weather, while Accuweather believes that the El Nino will not be as strong as advertised, and looks to analogs of similar winters, including the late snowing winter of 1992-1993 as models for what is to come this season.

Today, the National Weather Service issued a press release with their first look at what winter is shaping up to be in the United States for 2006. For metro Atlanta and North Georgia, we’re likely to see near normal temperatures, and equal chances of above, below, or normal precipitation.

Much of the country will likely see above normal temperatures, especially in the traditionally wintry states of Minnesota and Wisconsin. Near normal temperatures are expected for most of the Southeast, and a band stretching from Texas to North Carolina has equal chances of above or below normal temps. Apparently, the cold spot will be in Hawaii this year.

Wetter than normal weather is predicted for the southeast Atlantic and Gulf Coasts, stretching back through the desert southwest. Dry areas include much of Kentucky and Tennessee, and the Pacific Northwest.

The weather service is basing its forecast on the current El Nino pattern for the most part, and it is essentially the long range 3 month outlook produced back in September, and updated each month. (If you’re interested, the super long range outlook for Spring is for warmer than normal temperatures across much of the country).

In the shorter range, we are likely to get a bit of much needed precipitation this week. I’ve recorded about 3/4 of an inch of rain since September 13th, which was the last major rainfall date. That’s almost a month. Two cold fronts will pass through this week, on Wednesday, and again on Thursday, and the double blast will provide a chance for frost on Saturday morning. Then we’ll warm up a bit before another cold front hits late on the week of the 15th, dropping temperatures again.

Although winter outlooks typically don’t arrive until mid-October, Accuweather has released a preliminary look at the likely weather for Winter 2006-2007. Not surprisingly, the forecast is pretty typical of what you would expect for an El Nino year.

Meteorologist Joe Bastardi of Accuweather says that the weather along the east coast will likely be stormier than normal — typical of El Nino years. Bastardi predicts a relatively mild start to the season in the Northeast, followed by cooler weather in January and February. Whether this will lead to a greater chance of snowfall is really a matter of timing, since the cold Arctic air must be in place at the same time the storms are.

In the west, Bastardi says the weather is likely to be dryer than normal due to an extended high pressure system, and warmer than normal as well.

None of this is particularly earth-shaking, but again these are September predictions, three to five months out. Look for more specific Winter outlooks to be issued next month by all the major forecasters.

Taking a look at the weather in the short term, though, the cold front passed through the Atlanta area this afternoon, dropping dewpoints by 15 degrees between 2 and 6 PM as the storms cleared out. Behind the front is a taste of fall, with temperatures dropping into the 50s, and highs for the next few days not breaking 80. We may be getting into one of those annoying patterns where bad weather arrives just in time for the weekend for the next few weeks, with long range forecasts calling for a chance of rain this weekend, and again at the end of the month.

From a meteorological standpoint, winter is over, having ended yesterday. So, how did we do?

Here are the average temperatures, month by month, along with normals:
December: 40.7 46.8 6.1 degrees below normal
January: 48.3 42.7 7.6 degrees above normal
February: 44.3 46.8 2.5 degrees below normal
Winter: 44.4 45.4 1.0 degree below normal

So, we ended up, in the means, about a degree below normal for the winter, although we saw wild swings in the monthly temperatures.

When you take a look back at the early forecasts for winter, it looks like everybody got it right as far as temperatures go, except for the Weather Service, which issued a forecast of equal chances of above or below normal. Kudos go to the Farmer’s Almanac, which predicted the great swings from cold to warm, and then back again.

In the snowfall department, where we really didn’t see anything that caused any major problems at all, Kirk Melhuish got it spot on, with WeatherAmerica and AccuWeather widely missing the mark.

Overall, I would give the best grades to Kirk Melhuish, who was right on both temperature and precipitation.

Speaking of forecasts, I caught Joe Bastardi of Accuweather on Fox News over the weekend, talking about the upcoming hurricane season. While we’re about a month away from the official forecasts, he warned that based on similar patterns in the past, we’re likely to see another active season in 2006, with a probability of hurricanes striking the Atlantic coast, perhaps as far north as the New York area.

Shorter term, we may end up with a more or less normal March. The weather service is calling for equal chances of above or below normal temperatures and precipitation in Georgia for March. Warm weather is expected in Texas, and colder than normal weather is predicted in California. If the Climate Predication Center is right, it will also be rainy in California, and dry in Texas and Florida.

Texas is already feeling the heat, with highs around 90 today. Lawrenceville reached its high so far for the year, with 74.4 degrees. (The normal is 60 degrees). But, it won’t last: after another above normal temperature day tomorrow, it will be cooling down to normal temperatures, although, it’s likely to stay dry for a while, adding to a rainfall deficit for the year.

The Climate Prediction Center has issued its final Winter Outlook for the December through February period, and the overall forecast is for a warmer than normal winter, with equal chances of above or below normal precipitation everywhere except in the Southeast, where it will be dry, and Hawaii, where it will be wetter than normal.

Long-range winter forecasts can be derived by looking at the El Nino/La Nina sea surface temperatures and recent weather trends. In an El Nino pattern, the jet stream tends to be further south, bringing wetter and cooler conditions to the southeast. In a La Nina pattern, the polar jet stream is further north, bringing warm and dry conditions to the southeast. This winter, we have a neutral pattern, not affected by either phenomenon, so the weather service is looking at recent weather patterns, which have tended to be warmer than the 30 year period from 1970 to 2000.

While the a band from the Southwest to the upper Midwest will see warmer than normal temperatures, there is no real prediction for what we’ll see in the Southeast.

As far as precipitation goes, the Atlanta area is on the edge of an area stretching from middle Georgia into Florida that is expected to see lower than normal rain or snow. This continues a pattern that we’ve seen developing since August, where only tropical activity has brought rain to our area. It’s not being called a drought yet, but there is the chance of one developing.