Our friends at the Climate Prediction Center have finally released their 2008/2009 winter outlook, which calls for warmer then normal temperatures for much of the Mississippi Valley states, and drier than normal weather for most of the southeast and Gulf Coast. Here’s the temperature outlook:

And here’s the outlook for precipitation:

The CPC admits that without strong signals for either an El Nino or a La Nina winter, it presents a challenge to create its outlook, and admit that there could be a lot of variability in the weather this winter:

“These patterns are only predictable a week or two in advance and could persist for weeks at a time,” said Michael Halpert, deputy director, Climate Prediction Center. “Therefore, we expect variability, or substantial changes in temperature and precipitation across much of the country.”

if the outlook holds true, Georgia will experience a warmer than normal winter in the northwest part of the state, extending through the Atlanta metro, with less than normal precipitation, especially in the southern part of the state. The winter outlook is based on the CPC’s normal 3 month outlook for December, January and February which was released on Thursday, and pretty much follows the ideas they have had for the past few months.

I don’t know how much faith I have in their outlook, though. So far in November, Atlanta is running about 2.6 degrees cooler than normal, and I don’t see that trend changing through December. (The rainfall deficit seems to match the weather service’s ideas, though.) So if December is cooler than normal, we’re going to need a warm January and February to make up for it.

Updated winter forecasts from Accuweather and others will be available soon, and I’ll keep you posted.

With winter just a month away from a meteorological perspective, it’s time to take a look at some of the forecasts that have been issued for a glimpse of what the season will bring.

We’ll start with the always interesting and sometimes reliable Old Farmer’s Almanac’s prediction for the southeast, which includes much of North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia. Overall, they expect cold temperatures and normal to above normal precipitation, with more precipitation in the south. Look for above average snowfall, and the coldest weather in mid to late December, mid-January and mid-February.

On the other hand, Accuweather’s Joe Bastardi says to expect colder than normal weather for much of the east, with December being the coldest month relative to normal, a January thaw, and then cold again in February. The East can also expect more snow than last year.

WSB Radio forecaster Kirk Melhuish released his preliminary winter outlook this week, and it is similar to Accuweather, with ‘bookends’ cold spells at the beginning and end of the season, and less snowfall and slightly less rainfall than average. Kirk will issue his final winter forecast at the beginning of December.

Finally, what does the Weather Service say? They haven’t done a press release on their outlook as they have done in past years, so all you can do is look at their 3 month outlook for December-January. Unlike the other forecasts, the Climate Prediction Center thinks we have a better chance than normal for warmer weather. They also predict a 33% chance of drier weather, especially in mid and south Georgia.

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Reader Morgan wanted to know if we were likely to see some relief from the drought and any changes to the climate patterns we’ve been seeing over the past few years.  While I wish I was as prescient as he makes me appear, let’s take a look at what might happen this winter.

We’ll start with the three month outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center. The three month outlook from October through December calls for equal chances of above or below normal temperatures and precipitation for the period east of the Mississippi River.  Note this doesn’t mean a ‘normal’ fall season–it’s more like the indicators they are using for the outlook don’t point strongly one way or another.

For the winter proper, from December, 2008 through February 2009, the CPC says we’re likely to see warmer than normal temperatures for most of the US, and drier than normal conditions in the southeast, including Georgia. Based on what I’ve seen in the past, this prediction is likely to become the ‘official’ winter outlook that the Weather Service will release in Mid October.  You’ve got to take these outlooks with a grain of salt.  In their Winter 2007-08 outlook, they predicted a warm and dry seaon, while in actuality, the results show we did have above normal temperatures in Georgia, but we also had above normal rain.

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Today ended up being a big day for releasing weather data and forecasts, so let’s take a look at the news:

First of all, the Weather Service issued its final Winter 2007-08 forecast. Because of the strengthening La Nina in the Pacific, the revised forecast slightly extends the boundaries of the wet/dry warm/cold areas it predicted in it’s preliminary October forecast. If conditions go according to the forecast, it’s going to be wetter than normal in the Pacific Northwest and in the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and drier than normal for much of the southern half of the country, including virtually all of Georgia. It’s also going to be warmer than normal for most of the country, except the Pacific Northwest, with the heart of the heat in the Plains States.

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Accuweather.com has released its Winter 2007-2008 forecast, and it calls for much warmer temperatures than normal for most of the country. Long range forecaster Joe Bastardi says that the beginning and end of the season will probably be closest to normal, but the period from mid-December through February could be one of the top ten warmest winter periods, with the bulk of the warmth centered over the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas.

Bastardi also has a warning for the drought starved southeast:

“We will know in the next three to four weeks whether a storm from the tropics might arrive to help the southeast drought situation. If that doesn’t materialize, those states are looking at a very dry winter, with precipitation amounts less than half of normal in some areas.”

A combination of La Nina conditions and warming Atlantic Ocean temperatures are the chief culprits for the warm weather. East of a line from the Great Lakes to the Southwest could see temperatures above normal 75% of the time.

Update 10/25/07 - here’s a link to a more detailed winter forecast from Accuweather.