The wildfires that started two weeks ago when a tree fell on an electric power line near Waycross, Georgia have now consumed almost 79,000 acres, or about 100 square miles. A NASA satellite image, taken about noon on Sunday, shows the extent of the smoke and the location of the fire:

You can also look at the latest Georgia Visible Satellite Image to see the current spread of the smoke.

The fire is the largest in Georgia history, and is now estimated to be 70% under control. Residents across South Georgia and North Florida are being confronted with smoke, especially in Lanier and Lowndes counties near Valdosta, where a Dense Smoke Advisory has been issued until 5 AM Tuesday. Visibilities in some areas are limited to 1/4 mile.

The weather hasn’t been cooperating, with the southeast part of the state suffering the worst from Georgia’s drought. There is a 20% chance of rainfall later on this week.

Some random weather observations as Georgia’s (lack of) April showers will bring forth May Flowers:

• The third of an inch of rain we got on Thursday didn’t go very far to help the rain deficit we’ve had this year — about half of what we would get in a ‘normal’ year. This week, virtually all of Georgia is officially in a moderate drought, or worse, according to the Georgia Drought Monitor. The most extreme drought conditions are in the area affected by the fires in southeast Georgia.
• Accuweather.com is saying that the United States may be facing another Dust Bowl similar to what we had in the 1930s. The idea is that strong hurricane seasons correlate with dry conditions in the Plains states. Meanwhile, another forecaster is saying he doesn’t see an end to the dry conditions in the Southeast until tropical weather comes to disrupt the prevailing weather patterns.
• The next two weeks will probably bring warmer than normal conditions to much of the country, including Georgia. We’ll see temperatures in the mid 80s, when the normal high should be around 75 degrees.
• Accuweather’s Joe Bastardi is predicting another busier than usual hurricane season this year. The early indications are for a return of the storms to the Gulf Coast states, and continuing possibilities for hurricanes in the Northeast.
• I spent some time in Asheville, North Carolina this week, and if you think the Atlanta area suffered because of the Easter cold spell, you should see Asheville. Temperatures there dropped to 20 degrees Easter weekend, and most of the spring beauty one could expect to see at Biltmore Estate was wiped out. It seems that most of the trees were just beginning to send out leaves, and they all froze, giving a mid-winter look to the mountains. Viburnums, Azaleas, Wigelias — all were wiped out.
• Lawrencevilleweather.com will be moving to a new server sometime next week. As more and more people visit the site, and with the addition of more maps and features, performance hasn’t been exactly great. The server move should make for faster page displays. It’s scheduled for Monday night, although that could change. There should only be a 15 minute disruption, and I’ll be checking things out on Tuesday morning to make sure everything’s running OK.

The rain that fell on North Georgia yesterday gave way to winter-like conditions on Sunday, with gusty winds, and even some snow flurries reported as far south as Lawrenceville. Yesterday’s predicted rainfall didn’t meet NWS estimates, with just over an inch of rain in Atlanta, and 1.25 inches here in Lawrenceville.

As the front passed following the rain, temperatures dropped, and the winds picked up. This is one case where I regret that my weather station is located at the bottom of a hill in a woody area — I don’t get accurate wind gauge readings. While I recorded wind speeds as high as 17 MPH, I’m sure that they were much higher, judging what I saw with the swaying trees, and debris on the ground.

While Atlantans may by ruing the second winter-like weekend in a row, the storm that came through yesterday is now causing major problems in the Northeast. The Syracuse area is expecting up to a foot of snow overnight, and the winds that have affected us will cause whiteout conditions throughout much of New England over the next day or two.

Meanwhile, closer to the Atlantic, they are expecting floods and high winds in Boston, and in Maine, they have already had more than a foot of snow, with more expected.

I’ve mentioned to some folks I’ve talked to that March and April seem to have been reversed this year, and it looks like that will hold true for the rest of the month. We’re likely to see low temperatures in the 40s for at least the next week or so, with normal lows around 50.

There may be good news on the way, however. The 6-10 day and 8-14 day long range outlooks issued today call for above normal temperatures and rainfall for Georgia. However, the weekend outlooks are computer generated, and don’t reflect the experience of the weather service forecasters. It will be interesting to see if the same outlook holds true Monday, when the humans are back at work.

Much of the eastern half of the country has experienced unusually warm weather so far this winter. New York City finally saw its first flakes of snow this week–the latest first snowfall ever recorded. Temperatures in North Georgia so far this month are between seven and eight degrees above normal. This weekend, the Atlanta area could see temperatures around 70 degrees. Newspapers have run articles lamenting poor sales of winter coats and snow blowers.

If you’re thinking that it’s time to sharpen your lawnmower blades and get out the gardening gloves, you would most likely be wrong.

The split-flow upper air pattern that has been keeping the cold air up in Canada has begun to change, and at least one prominent meteorologist thinks that we could be seeing one of the coldest 30 day periods in the last 50 years.

Accuweather put out a press release on Monday featuring comments from forecaster Joe Bastardi. Bastardi says “the mild weather we’re experiencing now will be a distant memory,” and notes cold air will be moving across the country the week of the 15th, and a cold weather pattern will dominate the second half of the month.

The central part of the country is seeing this change now, and they are going to have a long slog this weekend. A slow-moving front stretches from East Texas to Maine, and is the dividing line between cold and warm air. It’s also bringing a lot of precipitation, as snow in the north and west, and as rain in areas stretching from Louisiana through southern Ohio. In between there’s going to be a major ice storm stretching from the Texas-Oklahoma panhandle through parts of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. Once all of this moves through by the middle of next week, the cold air will settle in.

Georgia is likely to miss all the weather excitement, at least through Monday evening. By that time, we may see some rain as the front exits the area, and the real cold air will stay out of the way for a few more days. But, by the week of the 22nd, we could see highs only in the mid 40s, and lows in the low 20s; much colder than normal.

With temperatures recorded at Hartsfield Airport in Atlanta 4.5 degrees above normal for December as a whole, and 8.9 degrees above normal for the first six days of January, one could be forgiven for asking, “What happened to Winter?”

Even Mother Nature seems confused. Looking around the yard, I have a few daffodils blooming, the Lenten Roses have bloomed, and I even see that the Daphne is beginning to bloom. On Ronald Reagan Parkway, the Pussy Willows are coming out. All of this is about a month ahead of schedule. In New York City, the entire month of December went without any measurable snowfall–the first time that has happened since recordkeeping began.

The US has been in what’s called a split flow jet stream pattern for the last month or so, with the northern jet stream moving west to east across the northern states, and the southern jet stream moving across the southern states. The effect of this is to keep all the cold Canadian air north of the border, and to bring fronts across the Gulf of Mexico, which is what we saw with the Christmas Day storms, which brought tornadoes to central Florida, and yesterday’s storm, where a violent squall line brought an F1 tornado to the McDonough area, and rain across much of Georgia around lunchtime.

This benign weather pattern will break down by the Saturday the 13th, bringing cold air out of Canada initially into the Plains states, and then moving further east. For the week of January 15th, the Atlanta area will be lucky to see high temperatures of 50 degrees. Beyond then, we’ll likely see more typical winter weather through February.

Before then, we’re going to get two storms. Rain tomorrow could bring 1.5 inches to the area, as a front will stall over Georgia during the day. Things clear out for the work week, with somewhat lower but still relatively warm temperatures and nice weather until next weekend, when another front ahead of the colder air again brings the possibility of rainfall.

So, if your outdoor plants seem a bit overeager, don’t worry too much. There will be plenty of colder weather to slow them down.