If you’ve gone outside at all today, you’ve probably smelled the smoke from the wildfires in south Georgia. The Big Turnaround and Bugaboo fires in the Okefenokee swamp continue to burn and, as we saw last week, the smoke can stretch 200 miles north to Atlanta.

The image below was taken about 9:45 this morning by NASA satellite, and it’s obvious that smoke is plaguing much of the state:

What’s actually happening is that winds in the south part of the state are blowing the smoke towards Augusta and South Carolina. Once the smoke got towards the mountains, they were redirected towards Atlanta, as can be seen by the plume on the left. The current Georgia satellite image shows that the winds have changed further south, so we should be seeing less smoke towards the evening, and tomorrow.

The wildfires that have burned in south Georgia for almost three weeks now continue to be visible on satellite images. The picture below, taken about 10 AM this morning shows smoke drifting from northern Florida to eastern South Carolina:

The Savannah area has especially suffered from low visibility due to smoke over the last few days, while smoke continues to plague the Valdosta area, although not as much as it did on Monday.

There might be some relief on the way this weekend, as the slow-moving storm that started earlier this week finally reaches Georgia. Some parts of north Georgia have reported spotty rainfall this afternoon, and it looks like the chance of rain will increase through Saturday. Expected precipitation amounts could be about half an inch over the weekend, although probably less in the area affected by the fires.

Forecasters are expressing low confidence in their predictions for this weekend because of the nature of the front. Right now, a stationary front is draped over the Georgia - Tennessee - North Carolina border, and it will be pushed south over the next few days by high pressure to the north. This is likely to cause cold air damming, or a wedge to set up over our area — fairly unusual for this late in the season.

Meanwhile, the long range outlook for fires in the southeast US doesn’t look very good.

The National Interagency Fire Center Wildfire Potential outlook for May through August, 2007 calls for an above normal chance of wildfires for much of South Georgia and Florida, as well as a section of Western North Carolina and Virginia. The agency looks for relief later this summer as potential La Nina conditions and tropical weather could bring in rainfall.

The wildfires that started two weeks ago when a tree fell on an electric power line near Waycross, Georgia have now consumed almost 79,000 acres, or about 100 square miles. A NASA satellite image, taken about noon on Sunday, shows the extent of the smoke and the location of the fire:

You can also look at the latest Georgia Visible Satellite Image to see the current spread of the smoke.

The fire is the largest in Georgia history, and is now estimated to be 70% under control. Residents across South Georgia and North Florida are being confronted with smoke, especially in Lanier and Lowndes counties near Valdosta, where a Dense Smoke Advisory has been issued until 5 AM Tuesday. Visibilities in some areas are limited to 1/4 mile.

The weather hasn’t been cooperating, with the southeast part of the state suffering the worst from Georgia’s drought. There is a 20% chance of rainfall later on this week.

Some random weather observations as Georgia’s (lack of) April showers will bring forth May Flowers:

• The third of an inch of rain we got on Thursday didn’t go very far to help the rain deficit we’ve had this year — about half of what we would get in a ‘normal’ year. This week, virtually all of Georgia is officially in a moderate drought, or worse, according to the Georgia Drought Monitor. The most extreme drought conditions are in the area affected by the fires in southeast Georgia.
• Accuweather.com is saying that the United States may be facing another Dust Bowl similar to what we had in the 1930s. The idea is that strong hurricane seasons correlate with dry conditions in the Plains states. Meanwhile, another forecaster is saying he doesn’t see an end to the dry conditions in the Southeast until tropical weather comes to disrupt the prevailing weather patterns.
• The next two weeks will probably bring warmer than normal conditions to much of the country, including Georgia. We’ll see temperatures in the mid 80s, when the normal high should be around 75 degrees.
• Accuweather’s Joe Bastardi is predicting another busier than usual hurricane season this year. The early indications are for a return of the storms to the Gulf Coast states, and continuing possibilities for hurricanes in the Northeast.
• I spent some time in Asheville, North Carolina this week, and if you think the Atlanta area suffered because of the Easter cold spell, you should see Asheville. Temperatures there dropped to 20 degrees Easter weekend, and most of the spring beauty one could expect to see at Biltmore Estate was wiped out. It seems that most of the trees were just beginning to send out leaves, and they all froze, giving a mid-winter look to the mountains. Viburnums, Azaleas, Wigelias — all were wiped out.
• Lawrencevilleweather.com will be moving to a new server sometime next week. As more and more people visit the site, and with the addition of more maps and features, performance hasn’t been exactly great. The server move should make for faster page displays. It’s scheduled for Monday night, although that could change. There should only be a 15 minute disruption, and I’ll be checking things out on Tuesday morning to make sure everything’s running OK.

The rain that fell on North Georgia yesterday gave way to winter-like conditions on Sunday, with gusty winds, and even some snow flurries reported as far south as Lawrenceville. Yesterday’s predicted rainfall didn’t meet NWS estimates, with just over an inch of rain in Atlanta, and 1.25 inches here in Lawrenceville.

As the front passed following the rain, temperatures dropped, and the winds picked up. This is one case where I regret that my weather station is located at the bottom of a hill in a woody area — I don’t get accurate wind gauge readings. While I recorded wind speeds as high as 17 MPH, I’m sure that they were much higher, judging what I saw with the swaying trees, and debris on the ground.

While Atlantans may by ruing the second winter-like weekend in a row, the storm that came through yesterday is now causing major problems in the Northeast. The Syracuse area is expecting up to a foot of snow overnight, and the winds that have affected us will cause whiteout conditions throughout much of New England over the next day or two.

Meanwhile, closer to the Atlantic, they are expecting floods and high winds in Boston, and in Maine, they have already had more than a foot of snow, with more expected.

I’ve mentioned to some folks I’ve talked to that March and April seem to have been reversed this year, and it looks like that will hold true for the rest of the month. We’re likely to see low temperatures in the 40s for at least the next week or so, with normal lows around 50.

There may be good news on the way, however. The 6-10 day and 8-14 day long range outlooks issued today call for above normal temperatures and rainfall for Georgia. However, the weekend outlooks are computer generated, and don’t reflect the experience of the weather service forecasters. It will be interesting to see if the same outlook holds true Monday, when the humans are back at work.