The medium range weather outlook, which now covers the first part of June, is calling for a change in the weather pattern to wetter, and eventually cooler weather. Below is the expected precipitation map for the period from May 30th through June 3rd, as issued Thursday afternoon:

The temperature outlook for the period from June 1st through June 7th is below normal, and the chance of rain for the period remains above normal. This is quite a change from a few days ago, and if it verifies would mean that we will get a good chance of some drought relief in the early part of June.

Basically, what is happening is that the high pressure system that has been just of the Atlantic coast for what seems like weeks now will be moving towards its more regular summer position near Bermuda, which will allow the storms that presently stop at the nation’s midsection to move further east into Georgia. The GFS forecast model that is one of the tools forecasters use to create these outlooks is the one that is most aggressive in its predictions for this weather pattern, hence the forecasters aren’t 100% sure that it is the right one.

Let’s hope that the GFS is right, and we do get some drought relief. The latest Georgia drought monitor, issued today, has 93% of the state in a severe drought, up from 53% last week. The severe drought area includes all of metro Atlanta. 42% of the state, primarly the northwest and southeast corners are in an extreme drought, up from 25% last week.

You’ve probably heard this on the news: the Climate Prediction Center has weighed in with its predictions for the 2007 hurricane season, which starts June 1st. The Atlantic Hurricane Outlook calls for a 75% chance of an above normal season, and only a 5% chance of a below normal season. Overall, they predict between 13 and 17 named storms, of which between 7 and 10 will become hurricanes. The predict between three and five of those hurricanes will be category three or greater.

These predictions are in line with what Bill Gray and the Colorado State University center are calling for, and slightly above what Accuweather forecasts. Dr. Gray will update his forecast at the end of the month. The weather service bases its predictions on the current above-normal cycle of activity for hurricanes that has gone on since 1995, and the probability of a La Nina pattern developing later on this summer.

In terms of the numbers, they look very similar to the predictions for the 2006 season, with the main difference being the possibility of La Nina conditions developing. La Nina and El Nino are terms used to describe the Pacific Ocean variances in sea surface temperatures, which are warmer than normal in El Nino years, and cooler than normal in La Nina years. Last year, forecasters failed to see the El Nino conditions that developed in late summer, causing a fairly normal hurricane season. This year’s forecast says that if a La Nina pattern does indeed develop, we are likely to see a hyperactive season, similar to what occurred in 2004 and 2005.

Meanwhile, Accuweather has released its summer forecast. Also citing the possibility of developing La Nina conditions, it calls for warmer than normal weather in the Northeast US, and makes a parallel with the ‘dust bowl’ conditions that occurred in the middle of the 20th century.

For the southeast, the forecast calls for near normal conditions, including precipitation. However, forecasters note that there is likely to be little long-term drought relief until hurricanes or tropical storms arrive later this summer.

NOAA has released its Spring weather outlook, covering the period from April through June. Some might argue that meteorological Spring started back on March first, but I won’t argue that point now. In any case, it looks like much of the South, West and Plains states will enjoy warmer than normal temperatures, while most of the country could see equal chances of above, below, or normal precipitation.

The only part of the United States that will likely see cooler weather is the coastal region of Southern California. The country’s midsection will probably be warmer than normal, and the Midwest and Northeast could be warmer or cooler than normal. Here in North Georgia, we’re on the edge of the predicted warm area.

No part of the country is expected to be wetter than normal this spring, while Louisiana and Eastern Texas, along with Hawaii and a big patch of the Southwest are predicted to be drier than normal. On the drought front, no problems are predicted for Georgia, however Florida is likely to see its drought continue.

Taking a look back at the recent winter season, the US ended up with near normal temperatures overall, albeit with some wide variations along the way. Georgia’s temperatures were the 77th warmest out of 112 years of recordkeeping, just above normal. The nation’s midsection experienced wetter than normal conditions, while the east and west coasts were dry. Georgia ended up being the 31st driest of the 112 years on record.

Temperatures so far in March are averaging about 6 degrees above normal in Gainesville, 4.3 degrees above in Athens, and 5.1 degrees above in Atlanta. Even with today’s rainfall, we’re also running drier than normal this month. The warm temperatures are bringing out the cherry trees and even azaleas a bit earlier than normal, even as the daffodils are just beginning to fade.

Spring’s advance will be slowed a bit this weekend, however, with overnight temperatures Saturday night quite possibly dropping below freezing. By Monday, however, the cold weather is likely to be only a memory, as the long-range forecasts through the end of the month are calling for above normal temperatures.

The Weather Service is hinting that we may be moving into La Nina conditions as spring moves into summer. In a press release, the agency says the warm sea surface temperatures that characterize El Nino conditions are rapidly decreasing, and that cooler waters in the eastern Pacific are a sign of an upcoming La Nina episode.

If indeed we move into a La Nina cycle, the effect is likely to be a more active than normal Atlantic hurricane season this summer. Should the cool ocean temperatures persist, it could mean a warm and dry winter season next year in the Southeast. Other than the chance of increased hurricane activity, La Nina cycles don’t provide much influence on temperatures or precipitation in the summer in the Southeast.

Meanwhile, if it seems like it’s gotten a bit cooler than it has been, you are right. Last week’s temperatures were above normal, which makes the effect more apparent, but the overall weather pattern right now is similar to what we saw in early February. Of course, the increased daylight limits the cold air’s push into the south — in fact, aside from some cool nights, most of the weather effects will be north of the mid-Atlantic states. It should be warming up again soon, with expected above normal temperatures for most of next week.

The recent weather pattern that has led to an unusually cold first half of February is likely to end once we get past this weekend. This morning’s low temperature of 23 degrees here in Lawrenceville was a full 13 degrees below normal, and it looks like we’ll be seeing similar lows through the weekend, as cold Canadian air pushes south in the wake of the blizzard that left some parts of the Northeast US with more than a foot of snow.

There is also a chance of some wintry precipitation on Saturday. The GFS model has been advertising snow for Saturday night in North Georgia since last weekend, although while it will be cold enough, there may not be enough moisture to cause any serious precipitation.

After President’s day, though, the weather picture begins to brighten as the jet stream changes to a flatter pattern. For much of January, a trough, or upper air low pressure, sat over the western US, while a ridge (or high pressure upper air) dominated the eastern half of the country. That allowed the colder air into the west, and kept it from penetrating the east. You can see the result in the map below.

That pattern reversed itself in late January, with a ridge in the west and a trough in the east, and much below-normal temperatures in Georgia. We are still about 3 degrees cooler than normal for the month so far.

The medium range outlook from the 21st through the end of the month calls for warmer than normal temperatures, as the northern jet stream retreats. We’ll be likely to see daytime highs in the sixties, and low temperatures staying above the freezing mark.

Is this winter’s last blast? The Weather Service’s long range outlook for March, which was released today, calls for equal chances of above, below or normal temperatures and precipitation for the eastern half of the country, and it reports that the effects of the El Nino are dying out. All we can do is hope for the best.