It’s the third Thursday of the month, when the Weather Service releases plenty of data, both forecasts for the next month and a look at the previous one. So, let’s take a look.

The National Climate Data Center reports that last month was the eighth warmest June globally this century, and the 27th warmest June in the US since 1895. Is it global warming? The NCDC also reports that Arctic sea ice was the at third lowest level since record keeping began in 1979, while Antarctic sea ice was at the second highest level recorded.

A lot of the US warmth last month was concentrated in the Southeast, which had the ninth warmest June in the last 114 years. All but the northern third of the country was warmer than normal, as you can see in the following chart:

On the precipitation side, it’s not hard to guess that the upper Midwest was much wetter than normal, with poor Iowa having its second wettest June ever, and much more than normal precipitation in Michigan, Ohio and Indiana. The drought kept its hold on Georgia (11th driest) and California (4th driest), the Carolinas and Tennessee all being much drier than normal:

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The weather forecast for June and the summer months of  Jone, July and August have been released by the Climate Prediction Center, and for North Georgia the outlook isn’t too bad.  For June, we have an equal chance of above or below normal temperatures and precipitation. For the rest of the country, there should be above normal temperatures in the desert southwest, and below normal temperatures in the midwest.  Expect above normal rainfall in the upper Mississipi valley, and drier than normal conditions in the northwestern US.

The summer weather outlook through the end of August calls for below normal temperatures in a band from Iowa southeast to Florida, including all of Georgia.  The forecast calls for warmer than normal temperatures in New England and the Southwest.  Look for below normal rainfall in the Pacific Northwest, and above normal rainfall in upper New England, the lower Mississippi valley and Florida. The rest of the country should see near normal precipitation.

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For the first time since July, 2007, none of Georgia is experiencing exceptional drought conditions. The most recent Georgia drought monitor shows that 46% of the state is drought free, and that parts of southern Fulton, DeKalb and Gwinnett counties have improved to the severe drought category, a step up from the extreme drought conditions seen further north.

Including the 1.15 inches of rain that fell yesterday at the Atlanta airport, we are above normal for March precipitation, and only down 1.79 inches for the year.  Last year at this time, only 7.89 inches of rain had fallen in Atlanta, so we’re way ahead of last year.  Lake Lanier is responding as well, rising about a third of a foot from the rain yesterday.

The drought outlook continues to call for improvement in the parts of Alabama and Georgia that were hardest hit last year, and some improvement for  the remainder of North Georgia, South Carolina and North Caroliina.  This outlook parallels the latest monthly precipitation outlook for April:

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While the vernal equinox isn’t for another three weeks, from a weatherman’s perspective, today is the first day of spring. And it looks like for the next two weeks or so, spring is going to be colder and wetter than normal, so take advantage of the nice weather this weekend while it lasts.

Beginning on Monday evening, another round of storms should hit much of the east coast, including Georgia. The latest hazards outlook is calling for a chance of severe thunderstorms Monday evening and Tuesday, and is also calling for some significant drought relief from the rain the storms will bring. Another front passing through later in the week could bring some rain, but it is more likely to introduce some cooler weather, with high temperatures next week at this time in the low 50s.

The 6-10 day outlook is calling for colder than normal temperatures, and greater than normal precipitation in north Georgia, while the 8-14 day outlook continues the cold trend and brings precipitation back to normal. For the month as a whole, the outlook is for warmer than normal temperatures, and normal rainfall.

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For the moment, the weather seems to be running about a month ahead of the calendar. With daytime temperatures in the upper 60s for the past few days, Atlanta is now running about 5.5 degrees above normal in February. Enjoy the nice weather while it lasts, because the current thinking by the meteorologists is that a cooldown is ahead, beginning this weekend.

For the first part of President’s day week, highs will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s, with lows in the low 30s. Later in the week, we could get back to high temperatures around 60, but keep in mind that the normal high for late February is 59. The Weather Service’s 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks both call for colder than normal temperatures for much of the eastern US. With a ridge in the western part of the country, and a trough expected for the east, it would be reasonable to expect some rain, and it looks like we’ll get that, at least for the early part of the long range period.

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