Hurricane Ernesto continues to gain strength, and with winds estimated at greater than 75 MPH early this morning was upgraded to Category 1 status. Expected to pass between Haiti and Jamaica overnight tonight, and across Cuba on Monday, the hurricane is likely to gain intensity as it crosses the Gulf of Mexico to the west of the Florida Keys.

There has also been a significant change in the storm’s expected path. For the past 48 hours, models have been moving the expected landfall point further east. As of this morning, the National Hurricane Center expects the storm to cross Florida somewhere north of Tampa Bay on Thursday, and emerge near Jacksonville on Friday.

As you can see from the map above, there is still some disagreement among the many forecast models on the exact path and landfall position. However, most of them are ’seeing’ a high pressure system currently over the Rocky Mountains moving southeast during the week and ultimately forcing Ernesto to recurve over Florida.

How will this affect the weather in Georgia? Had the storm continued on the previously forecast path, we might have seen a lot of rain, as the center of the storm could have passed through Alabama and Georgia. The current path threatens the Georgia coast, but reduces the rain threat in North Georgia, since the worst effects of a hurricane are on its eastern side.

This week, we’re going to see pleasant weather during the first half of the week, and then a good chance of rain as the front approaches from the west on Wednesday and Thursday. What we’ll get over the first part of the Labor Day weekend depends on the exact track of Hurricane Ernesto, but the outlook on the holiday itself calls for cooler weather than we’ve seen, with highs only in the low 80s.

Almost one year after Hurricane Katrina caused so much damage to the New Orleans area, newly-named Tropical Storm Ernesto is set to enter the Gulf Coast area over the next few days. The storm’s path indicates it will pass over Jamaica on Sunday as a tropical storm, then intensify into a hurricane by the beginning of the week.

It’s still too early to estimate exactly where Ernesto will end up, but assuming that he makes it past the tip of Yucatan, next week could be America’s first real test of hurricane responsiveness this year.

For the past two weeks or so, the metro Atlanta area has been stuck in a persistent weather pattern with tropical moisture and humidity leading the way. In some ways, the change has been good, with almost 4 inches of badly needed rain, along with slightly cooler temperatures. However, I suspect that most folks are ready for the start of the crisp, cooler weather of fall.

The good news is that the boundary separating the moist air from dryer air to our north is starting to move south, and we may see some lower dewpoints this weekend. What is more interesting is that a significant change in the weather is likely beginning towards the end of next week.

If the forecast turns out as advertised, an upper level trough will bring daytime highs down into the low 80s, and possibly the upper 70s, and nighttime lows into the lower 60s. The period from the 30th through Labor Day will also feature some rain — which may be assisted by tropical storm/hurricane activity.

Meanwhile, we are at the start of the busiest time of the year for Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane activity. Tropical Storm Debby may turn into a hurricane by Sunday, but is unlikely to affect the United States, as she is expected to turn north and stay out in the open sea.

Instead, keep your eye on a low pressure system located off the northern coast of South America. This system continues to move west, and could become a tropical depression or tropical storm sometime before this weekend. If it does become Ernesto, there’s a reasonable chance it could affect the Gulf, and our weather, before it runs its course.

In a flurry of press releases, NOAA provided its annual update to the May Hurricane forecast, and released the temperature and rainfall statistics for July.

For the current hurricane season, the NWS dropped its total predicted number of storms and major hurricanes by 1. So instead of 13-16 tropical storms, we can now expect 12-15; instead of 8-10 hurricanes, we can expect 7-9, out of which 3-4 are likely to be major.

The change was made primarily because of lower than predicted sea surface tempertures, which are still above normal, but not quite as much as predicted (or what we had last year). They are still predicting a 75% chance of an above normal hurricane season, and only a 5% chance of a below normal year. Last year, we had seven named storms by early August, while this year there have only been three, although the heart of the season is yet to come.

Meanwhile the July 2006 temperature and rainfall rankings for each state have been released, and are shown below.

Overall, July was the second-warmest ever nationwide, with an average temperature of 77.2. The only warmer July was in 1936. In Georgia, it was the 90th warmest July ever, above normal, but not excessively so. It was however excessively dry in Georgia - the seventh dryest July ever. The weather service also reported that the average temperature during the period from January-June, 2006 was the warmest recorded since recordkeeping began.

The hot weather was the lead story on radio news today, but it looks like, at least in the Atlanta area, no records were broken. While the temperatures weren’t that much warmer than they’ve been over the last few days, the humidity was more stifling, and we had a high heat index of 105 degrees just before 3 PM. Between Augusta and Savannah, things were worse, with Sylvania reporting a heat index of 118 degrees at 5 PM.

You can expect a few more days of hot weather before the pattern begins to change. The high pressure system that is providing all the warmth will move west, allowing a trough into the east. Another factor that could affect our weather is Tropical Storm Chris, which could become a hurricane by Friday. The center of Chris (it’s a he Chris, not a she Chris, by the way), is projected to move to between Cuba and the Florida Keys by Sunday afternoon. It’s still an open question whether the storm will continue it’s westward path, or curve northward, but in any case, we should get a better chance of rain and some cooler temperatures as a result, although it may take a week to see it.