The August heat wave looks like it will go on through Thursday, but at least here at my house, today was the warmest day so far in 2008. It got up to 99 degrees (well, 98.7) at 2:10 PM, topping the 97.1 reached on both June 8 and July 10. It could have been worse though: with the dew point in the low 60s, the heat index was only 102 degrees.

Temperatures reached the century mark today in Augusta, Milledgeville, Savannah, Athens and Vidalia. For whatever reason, it stayed a bit cooler in Atlanta today, with highs only in the low 90s. Tomorrow, the humidity goes back up, and by tomorrow afternoon, the approaching front will bring a chance of rainfall, and at least a temporary end to the excessive heat we’ve been seeing recently.

Hurricane Forecast Update

We’re about ready to get into the strongest part of the hurricane season, from mid-August through the end of October.  The folks at Colorado State University have updated their tropical forecast and are now calling for more storms than they predicted back in April and repeated in June.

Instead of 15 named storms, the predicted total has been upped to 17, with nine hurricanes, instead of eight. Five of those should be intense, compared to four predicted previously.  Part of the reason for upping the predictions is the number of storms we’ve seen through July, with four named storms, two hurricanes and one intense hurricane. That doesn’t count Edouard, which was the first storm in August.  According to the forecast, only 2005 (the year of Katrina) and 1916 have had more active pre-August tropical activity.

There’s a 2/3 chance of a major hurricane making landfall somewhere in the US during the rest of the season, with a better than 40% chance of a storm striking either the east coast or the gulf coast.  Overall, the forecasters are predicting a tropical season that is 190% as active than the average season from 1950-2000.

In addition to providing forecasts for the rest of the season, the Dr. Gray and his team are providing a forecast for August tropical activity. If they are right, we will have four storms, three of which will become hurricanes, and one intense hurricane this month. With Edouard already occuring, that’s the non-hurricane storm, if their forecast is correct. They will also issue forecasts for September and October at the beginning of those months.

With just a week before it starts, the Climate Prediction Center has released its outlook for the 2008 tropical season. They are calling for a 65% chance of an above normal season, a 25% chance of a normal season, and only a 10% chance of a below normal season.

They are calling for between 12 and 16 named storms, 6-9 hurricanes and 2-5 major hurricanes this year. This compares nicely with the Colorado State forecast of 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes, and is slightly more than Accuweather’s call for 12 named storms.

The major factors going into this year’s predictions include the continuing signal for more storms that started back in 1995, warmer than normal sea surface temperatures along the eastern Atlantic seaboard, and the continuing presence of La Nina conditions.

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Joe Bastardi and is team over at Accuweather.com have released their 2008 Atlantic hurricane season forecast, and it calls for an even dozen named storms this year. While the number of storms will be close to normal, the group is predicting a greater than normal chance of landfalling hurricanes on the East coast, especially between North Carolina and New England, including one major hurricane in that area.

They are predicting a relatively normal season in the Gulf area, with two or three storms expected to hit the western gulf. Accuweather selected 1985, 1989, 1996 and 1999 as analog years with conditions similar to what is expected this summer. Interestingly enough, the CSU team selected ‘89 and ‘99 as analog years as well, although they predicted a larger number of storms.

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With less than two months until the start of the Atlantic tropical season on June 1, the forecasting team at Colorado State University has updated its forecast, and is now calling for a more active season than originally predicted last December.

Drs. Klotzbach and Gray are estimating that there will be 15 named storms and eight hurricanes in 2008, with four of those being intense hurricanes.  This compares to the December forecast of 13 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three intense hurricanes. Between 1950 and 2000, there were, on average, 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes, and 2.3 intense hurricanes each year.  Overall tropical activity is predicted to be 160% of normal.

There is a 99% chance that some sort of tropical activity will cross the US coastline this year, with a 69% chance of a major hurricane making landfall.  There is a 44% chance that a major hurricane will strike the Gulf Coast, and a 45% chance that a major hurricane will strike the East coast or the Florida peninsula.

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The team over at Colorado State University has released its initial forecast for the 2008 hurricane season, and the prediction is for another above-average season, compared to normal.  For 2008, the forecast is for 13 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three category 3, 4, or 5 hurricanes.

This compares to last year’s early forecast of 14 storms, seven hurricanes, and three intense hurricanes made in December, 2006.  The actual number of 2007 storms was 14, with six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes. Based on normal climatology, we would have 9.6 storms, 5.9 hurricanes, with 2.3 of those being major. Overall, the forecast for tropical activity in 2008 is 125% of normal conditions, based on the 1950-2000 period.

As far as the chance of a hurricane making landfall in the United States, there is a 90% chance of a strike somewhere in the US, with a 68% chance of landfall on the Gulf Coast, and a 70% chance of landfall in Florida and the East Coast.

In the forecast itself (PDF), Drs. Gray and Klotzbach explain that they are using a new methodology for their long range predictions. Essentially what they are doing is looking at a range of climate features, including sea surface temperatures, upper atmosphere pressure differences in the North Atlantic, and sea level pressures in the eastern Pacific, and using them as predictors of what might happen.  By observing these values in the fall of previous years, and then comparing the following hurricane seasons, they have determined that these three influences reasonably predict the upcoming season.

The forecast will be updated in April, and again at the start of the hurricane season in June.