A few quick weather ideas today …
The hurricane season starts tomorrow, and Drs Gray and Klotzbach of Colorado State University have updated their hurricane forecast for the year … somewhat. They haven’t changed their ideas at all from their original forecast last December, calling for 17 named storms, and 5 intense hurricanes. That’s slightly over what the National Hurricane Center is calling for, and more than what Accuweather’s Joe Bastardi is calling for, with 3 major storms making landfall, with the most activity in the Texas area early in the season, and the Carolinas and East Coast late in the season.
Meanwhile, protesters are at the headquarters of NOAA in Maryland calling for the resignation of National Hurricane Center Max Mayfield because he refuses to endorse the idea that global warming is causing the increase in tropical activity. Mayfield’s view is that the uptick in hurricane activity is the result of a multi decade cycle that has repeated itself over the years, and happens to be in a strong phase now. He does not believe that global warming has anything to do with it. Accweather’s Bastardi has a similar opinion in his article from the Durham Herald Sun.
Metro Atlanta may get its first real chance of significant rainfall since back on May 10th on Thursday and Friday. After spending the last two weeks dominated by a high pressure ridge, the trough that had been further west is moving east, and could bring some rainfall, although it appears the worst of it will be further north. After all the heat over the last ten days, I’ll be glad for some rain.
And, the weather service has updated its forecast for June. They predict that warmer than normal temperatures will dominate much of the southern plains states, from Arizona, New Mexico, and west Texas north to the Canadian border. Below normal rainfall is predicted in an oval centered over Nebraska, and extending southeast to the Tennessee-Alabama border. For Georgia, the weather service is calling for equal chances of above or below normal temperatures and precipitation.
The shorter term forecast is for below normal temperatures and normal to below normal rainfall in north Georgia from the 6th to the 14th. They have been advertising this drop to below normal temps for the last few days, and it seems like they’re pushing it back much the way they kept predicting the current warm spell to start in early May, and then pushed it back until it finally got here. We finally got the above normal temperatures, and I suspect that we will see the cool spell as well.