La Nina Conditions Apparent in November-January Drought Outlook
The Climate Prediction Center is issued it’s latest update to its Drought Outlook for November through January. The forecast relies both on the current drought conditions in the southeast, along with the typical weather patterns seen during La Nina winters.
The latest outlook, shown at right, calls for the development of drought conditions along virtually all of the Gulf Coast, and the Atlantic Coast, from the Georgia border south through Florida. This change from the previous forecast is in line with what would be expected in a La Nina winter, which calls for dry conditions in the southeast, and with the end of the 2007 hurricane season on November 30th.
Meanwhile, the forecast calls for some improvement in Tennessee and Kentucky, which typically receive more precipitation during La Nina winters. For the portions of Georgia already in an exceptional drought, well, no changes there.
Last week’s rain did little to improve drought conditions in Georgia, although it did provide some relief to Alabama and the Carolinas:
There were virtually no changes to the drought levels in Georgia, with 32% remaining in an exceptional drought. Meanwhile in Alabama, 36% of the state remains in exceptional drought conditions, compared to 64% last week, with the western part of the state experiencing the greatest relief. North Carolina went from 56% of the state in exceptional drought conditions to 13%.
There appears to be no short term relief in sight for the dry weather conditions in Georgia. Medium range forecasts call for less than normal precipitation for the next two weeks. It’s also likely to be cooler than normal, although we might be able to get through at least another week without having a freeze.
The updated monthly forecast for November, issued yesterday, calls for equal chances of above or below normal temperatures for the entire country, except for west of the Rocky Mountains and Alaska. The precipitation outlook calls for equal chances of above or below normal rainfall for the east coast (including Georgia) and the Southern Plains, and below normal precipitation for the rest of the United States.
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