December Likely to be Warm and Dry in the Southeast
Today ended up being a big day for releasing weather data and forecasts, so let’s take a look at the news:
First of all, the Weather Service issued its final Winter 2007-08 forecast. Because of the strengthening La Nina in the Pacific, the revised forecast slightly extends the boundaries of the wet/dry warm/cold areas it predicted in it’s preliminary October forecast. If conditions go according to the forecast, it’s going to be wetter than normal in the Pacific Northwest and in the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and drier than normal for much of the southern half of the country, including virtually all of Georgia. It’s also going to be warmer than normal for most of the country, except the Pacific Northwest, with the heart of the heat in the Plains States.
The weather service also issued its outlook for December. The temperature forecast looks almost exactly like what they are predicting for December- February:
Meanwhile, for precipitation, the Pacific Northwest is likely to be wet, while the south is likely to be dry:
Also today, the Climate Prediction Center released its drought outlook for the next three months. The big change from the previous outlook, issued two weeks ago, is that much of Texas and New Mexico are expected to see developing drought conditions:
No improvement is expected in the Southeast, however, some relief is forecast in Kentucky and Tennessee, due to the expected precipitation from the La Nina conditions. The outlook for developing drought in Texas shows you that no matter how much rain you get, drought could be just around the corner. Here’s a map of rainfall from January through October, 2007:
While it confirms that North Georgia, eastern Tennesee, and northern Alabama have had the driest months ever, it also shows that portions of Texas that had their wettest ever January through October. Now, that area is expected to go into a drought.
Last night’s rain did little to help the Georgia drought. I recorded about a third of an inch of rain and the gauge over at Atlanta’s Hartsfield Airport recorded a measly .14 inches of precipitation. So far this month, we’ve received only about 6% of what we would expect in the first two weeks of November. It’s probably going to stay dry through Thanksgiving, but the last week of the month could bring some more rain. Computer models have been waffling on exactly what will happen, but both the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts are calling for a better chance of rain than normal for much of the eastern half of the country.
I can’t sign off without noting the bankruptcy filing of Pike’s Nurseries here in Atlanta. I’ve probably shopped at Pike’s for 20 years, and have always felt that the quality of their plant material and the helpfulness of their staff made it worth paying a little more that what I could have at a Home Depot, Lowes, or Wal-Mart. I stopped by #6 on Lawrenceville highway today around lunchtime, and it was deserted. Keep in mind that it’s still a good time to plant, and that water demands during the winter aren’t as great as they are during the warmer seasons.
But even if you don’t want to plant anything outside right now, keep in mind that Christmas is right around the corner. They were unloading the first batch of Christmas trees while I was there — think about getting your tree at Pike’s this year — I plan to.
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