2007 Hurricane Season: Normal, but Less Than Predicted
While the 2007 hurricane season doesn’t officially end until Friday, for all intents and purposes it’s over, with no activity since the beginning of November, and nothing on the horizon. Despite predictions for an active season, 2007 ended up being about normal. Dr. Gray and the gang over at the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University have released their 2007 summary (PDF) with the numbers for the season:
We had 14 named storms, with six hurricanes and two intense hurricanes this year. Dean and Felix ended up as category 5 storms, and both ended up on the Yucatan peninsula in Mexico. The remaining hurricanes were category 1, or relatively minor. For the second consecutive year, the United States went relatively unscathed, with only Hurricane Humberto striking Texas creating any significant damage. Tropical Storm Barry brought some drought relief to parts of Georgia, and helped put out the south Georgia wildfires. However, a storm that might have put a significant dent in the drought did not appear.
The Colorado State team seems to be at a loss to explain the weaker than expected season. Some of the factors that would point to a stronger season, including the development of La Nina conditions and a relative lack of vertical wind shear worked out as expected. Atlantic sea surface temperatures were slightly cooler than predicted, but this should not have been a major factor.
While the first half of the season turned out to be relatively normal, less than normal activity in October and November counted for most of the shortfall from the earlier projections. And, the report said that despite normal to lower-than-normal hurricane seasons in 2006 and 2007, we are still in a period of greater than normal hurricane activity that will last another ten to 20 years. This long cycle is part of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation that is also responsible for the southeast’s rainfall shortage.
As far as what 2008 will bring…well, Dr. Gray’s team plans to issue its first 2008 hurricane forecast on December 7th.
Sphere: Related Content