Updated Drought Outlook Discouraging for Southeast, Better for Midwest
The Weather Service has issued its monthly update to the US Drought Outlook, and while conditions may be improving in the midwestern states, there is continued drought and further development along the east coast. The latest forecast, for the period from October through January, 2008 calls for improved conditions in southern Illinois, Indiana and Ohio, along with western Kentucky and Tennessee. This area was previously forecast to have only some improvement.
However, drought conditions are expected to develop in Florida, New Mexico, and eastern Arizona, and the boundary of the persistent drought area in the Southeast has stretched further north into New Jersey and Pennsylvania, compared to the previous forecast.
In Georgia, this week’s drought conditions have worsened. Over one third of the state is now considered to be in an exceptional drought, compared to 27% for the week of October 9th, and only 21% of the state is not in a drought, compared to 28% the previous week. The part of the state with exceptional drought has extended further south and west, with no real rainfall last week to bring improvement.
At least there’s some good news for the short term. The map to the right shows the forecast precipitation for the southeast from Thursday morning through Saturday morning. Even though the rain has been a bit slow in getting here, look for a round of rain later today, and again on Friday morning.
Much of Georgia should get at least an inch of rain, and as much as two inches over the period. If we do get two inches, that will be more than all the rain we’ve received since August 29th, at least here in Lawrenceville. For Hartsfield Jackson Airport, where the official Atlanta records are kept, it will equal the rainfall since September 14th.
After a warm and dry weekend, North Georgia could see additional rainfall next week, as another front passes through. Unfortunately, computer models are unable to agree on exactly what will happen, when it will happen and exactly how much rain will fall. But, if things work out right, we could have four inches of rain over the next week, which would make at least some dent in the drought.
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