In Georgia, the Effects of La Nina Depend on Her Strength
Georgia State Climatologist David Stooksbury held a press conference today in Athens to discuss the latest Georgia drought conditions, and to explain what he thinks might occur weather-wise over the winter and spring of 2008. Much of what might happen through the next six months depends on the strength of the developing La Nina, including the chances of being able to refill, at least partially, Lakes Lanier and Allatoona.
There is now general agreement that La Nina conditions are developing in the Pacific. La Nina, and her partner El Nino, are descriptions of the two phases of the warmth of the Pacific Ocean surface temperatures compared to normal. In El Nino conditions, temperatures are warmer, while the reverse is true for La Nina. Most climate observers feel that La Nina conditions strengthened in September.
In a press release accompanying the news conference, Stooksbury said,
“The effects of the La Niña pattern differ with its strength. These differences are critical across north and central Georgia, potentially having major impacts on the current drought and the region’s ability to recover this winter and spring.”
If the La Nina conditions remain weak, then there is actually a greater chance of precipitation across extremely north Georgia, and normal precipitation across the piedmont area. In a moderate to strong La Nina, the chance of more than usual precipitation will be limited to the extreme northwest corner of the state. In either case, it’s likely to be warmer and drier over the southern half of the state. You can see the impacts in the image to the right (click on it for a larger version.)
We had best be hoping for a weak La Nina pattern. In the words of Stooksbury,
Sphere: Related Content“If a moderate La Niña pattern develops, there is a high likelihood that north and west Georgia won’t be able to recover from the drought this winter.
The extreme- to exceptional-drought regions of the state may muddle through the winter and early spring. But without significant recharge of the soil moisture, groundwater, streams and reservoirs, conditions next summer could become catastrophic.”