A Difficult Forecast for This Week

Predicted Rainfall for this weekI’ve been watching the weather forecast for the upcoming week with some interest, especially since the low pressure system developing to our west is going to bring plenty of rain to somebody. As the weekend progressed, the models kept bringing the heaviest areas of rain further and further east, and into Georgia. This morning’s precipitation forecast, shown at right, promised some serious drought relief where it is most needed, along the northwestern part of the state. Five inches of rain north of Huntsville would help tremendously with the drought.

The rain was predicted to start Monday night, and continue through Wednesday, and could have brought as much as an inch to metro Atlanta. Now, the rain is supposed to start falling early Monday morning, and while it may continue through Wednesday, the Peachtree City forecast office is predicting only about half an inch total through the period. Accuweather is still calling for slightly over an inch here on the east side of the state, and more in Northwest Georgia.

So, what’s going on? An upper level low pressure system is going to be the chief factor in our weather for the week, and forecast models have been unable to decide how far east it’s going to go, and the exact timing of the surface frontal system that accompanies it. This morning, the system was predicted to come east towards Georgia, now it looks like the models think it will get stuck in Louisiana/Mississippi.

The bottom line on this is that with the rapidly changing models, there is very little confidence in exactly what will happen, and exactly how much rain Georgia will get. Chances remain good that at least part of the drought stricken Southeast will get enough rain to provide some significant relief.

Everything indicates that whatever it is will pass through by late in the week, and we should have a nice end of October weekend. Once the system does come through, though, look for lower temperatures with daytime temperatures struggling to reach 70 degrees. Long range forecasts call for another system to push through at the end of the month, with another shot at rainfall.

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3 Responses to “A Difficult Forecast for This Week”

  1. Atlanta Water Shortage » Georgia Drought » Blog Archive » More rain coming - but how much? Says:

    [...] an inch of rain. Not bad! That could buy us a few extra weeks.  The Lawrenceville Weather Blog has a more detailed analysis of the rain chances for the next few days. After that, it looks like it’ll be dry for a few [...]

  2. Rahn Says:

    5 inches would be nice!
    However, if it’s north of Huntsville, will that help us? Where is Lake Lanier (and other lakes) fed from?

  3. Jon Richards Says:

    Rahn, take a look at the next post, where your question is addressed in detail.