Midway Through The Hurricane Season, The Tropics Are Busy
Early September marks the halfway point of the 2007 tropical season, and things are certainly busy, with more on the way. So far this year, we’ve had six named storms in the Atlantic basin, which is well above average. Especially notable is that there have been two category five systems, Dean and Felix, both striking the Mexican/South American coast.
The picture below was taken about 8 AM, and shows Felix striking the South American coast near the Nicaragua Honduras border:
Also today, Hurricane Henriette is making landfall on the other side of Mexico, and is forecast to head towards New Mexico and Arizona, bringing heavy rainfall to that area.
Of more concern to those of us on the Eastern seaboard is a tropical disturbance located off of the Georgia coast. This low pressure system has been milling around since last week, and has the potential to develop into a tropical storm that could bring rain to the Mid-Atlantic and New England states. The picture below shows what several models were predicting what the storm’s path could be:
Both this system and Hurricane Felix are affecting the weather in Georgia, as we are now centered between the two storms’ low pressure. This is bringing us the nice weather we have seen over the past few days. Depending on what happens with these storms, we are likely to continue to see dry weather, even if the system off the coast becomes better organized.
So what to expect as the tropical season goes on? Dr. Gray and his team have issued an updated hurricane forecast (PDF) for the rest of the season and there doesn’t seem to be any significant changes from what was earlier predicted. The team continues to predict 15 named storms, including Felix, but has dropped the number of hurricanes predicted from eight to seven. They are still predicting four intense hurricanes — we are now halfway there with Dean and Felix.
The forecast notes that through August 31st, observed tropical activity accounts for 40% of what would be seen during an average hurricane season. In a normal year, only 33% of tropical activity would be recorded during August.
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