Developing La Nina Conditions Could Mean a Warm Dry Winter
The Weather Service provided further confirmation to what it had been hinting at for the past several months yesterday, when it issued a news release reporting a developing La Nina condition. The expectation is that La Nina conditions will continue to develop over the next three months, and provide a wintertime La Nina weather pattern. This expectation is backed up not only by observation, but by computer modeling.
If La Nina conditions develop, what can we expect for this winter? According to statistics gathered during previous La Nina years, there is a 49% chance of less than normal precipitation in North Georgia from January through March, and a 60% chance that temperatures will be above normal. There’s only an 8 percent chance of below-normal temperatures, but there is still a 32% chance of above normal precipitation.
La Nina conditions occur when sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean are below normal for more than three months in a row. It is the opposite of El Nino conditions, where equatorial ocean temperatures are above normal. The last time we had a La Nina episode was back in 2000.
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