Hurricane Dean Develops into Category 3 Storm
Hurricane Dean has been intensifying over the past few days, and is now a Category 3 storm, with winds of 125 MPH, and a very distinct eye. By Sunday afternoon, he should be directly over the island of Jamaica, and just approaching being a Category 5 storm. A hurricane watch is out for the island.
The map above shows the a number of forecast tracks for where Dean will go after passing south of Cuba. While the consensus forecast is to keep the storm on a westerly track, notice the forecast of the GFDL model, which moves the storm northwest, and towards Louisiana. While this forecast is an outlier, the GFDL model has a tendency to be accurate, and the National Hurricane Center has noted this in its discussion, which assumes that the high pressure ridge over the southeastern US will keep Dean to the south. It will be early next week before the situation becomes clearer, but it appears this storm will be one to keep an eye on.
Meanwhile, here in Atlanta, my front yard looks like it’s the first week of October, rather than the third week of August. The almost complete lack of rainfall since the first of the month has brought the effects of the drought back with full intensity, and the dogwood and tulip trees are showing the strain by dropping their leaves.
While there are some storms in the area this evening, August has rapidly taken away any improvement we saw in our cooler, wetter July. The good news is that from this time next week through the end of the month, there’s a better than normal chance of rainfall, and this trend has been holding for the last two or three outlooks.
Meanwhile, the National Climate Data Center issued its temperature and precipitation summary for July. Georgia ended up with cooler than normal temperatures (30th coldest of 113 years), and near normal precipitation (45th driest out of 113 years). Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming had their warmest months ever, while Texas and Louisiana had their third wettest July ever.
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