Drought’s Impact Likely to Loosen
The latest drought outlook from now through October shows some marked improvement from the previous forecast, issued on July 5th:
Now, virtually all of the eastern half of the country can look for at least some improved conditions, with the drought in the west set to develop, persist, or intensify. Meanwhile, the weekly drought monitor shows little change of drought conditions in the Southeast and Georgia from the previous week.
In the two weeks since July 6th, much of Georgia has been influenced by moist tropical air from a dominant southwesterly air flow. This has had two effects: showers and thundershowers have been in the forecast almost every day, and the accompanying clouds have kept temperatures lower than normal. Most of Georgia is recording a mean temperature so far in July between 1.5 and 2 degrees below normal, and here, the mean temperature of 75 degrees through today is .9 degrees cooler than the entire month of June.
The cooler weather and at least some rainfall from the thundershowers are at worst causing the drought conditions to hold steady, and at best, causing some reduction in the drought’s intensity. As of today, Atlanta has seen 16.8 inches of rain, 13 inches less than normal. However, here in South Gwinnett, I’m up to 19.7 inches, with most of the difference being accounted for in the last month.
Ultimately, it’s likely to be tropical weather that brings Georgia out of drought conditions. While it seems like the tropics are quiet, keep in mind that the most intense part of the season usually fires up in mid-August, and continues through the end of September. In any case, I’m glad that the 100 degree temperatures that were being talked about a month ago haven’t come to pass — at least not yet.
This weekend brings a change in the pattern, as a cold front moves from north to south across Georgia this evening, leaving dryer air behind, just in time for the weekend. The tropical air may return next week, and there is at least a chance of showers each day. in the longer range from July 26th through the first weekend in August, a heat wave will continue in the northern half of the country, with cooler than normal temperatures in much of the south. North Georgia appears to be in the middle of this temperature sandwich, and could see above or below normal temperatures.
The preliminary outlook for August calls for warmer than normal weather for the southeast, and from the Rocky Mountains west. That trend continues in the 3 month forecast through October.
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