Georgia Climatologist: Warm Temperatures as Drought Continues
This morning’s AJC front page features an article highlighting the possibility of 100+ degree temperatures this summer due to the drought. Somewhat skeptical due to their previous story predicting high temperatures, I found the article written by the Georgia’s Climatologist, David Stooksbury, who does indeed tell a tale of worsening conditions, and warm summer temperatures.
Stooksbury says that extreme drought conditions have expanded into 104 of Georgia’s 159 counties, compared to 95 counties back in early June, when tropical storm Barry brought some relief to the southeast part of the state. Barry’s benefits are fading quickly however, and Stooksbury echoes the predictions of others when he says that to break the drought conditions, we are going to need some tropical storms.
As you can see from the soil moisture anomaly map above, soil moisture levels are below 5% across much of north and west Georgia, indicating dry conditions normally seen only five times in every hundred years. Even with the rains from Barry, the southeast part of the state is seeing moisture levels expect only once out of four years.
While the lack of rain is taking its toll on your landscape, the drought is about to take a bite out of your wallet as well. Quoting Stooksbury,
“If dry conditions continue, high temperatures between 100 and 105 degrees Fahrenheit could become common in the piedmont region of Georgia. Highs between 103 and 108 could be common in the coastal plain. Even the immediate coast and the mountains could have temperatures in the middle 90s.”
So, with the best hope for drought relief being tropical weather, what’s happening with the climate? In March, NOAA predicted a change to La Nina Conditions this summer, which would point to a stronger than normal hurricane season. However, the sea surface temperatures which determine if we are in a La Nina or El Nino pattern haven’t cooled down in the central Pacific Ocean as much as predicted, and the Weather Service now says that La Nina conditions probably won’t develop until early fall.
If that’s true, then this year’s predictions of more hurricane activity than normal may be overdone. We’ll just have to hope that whenever tropical storms arrive, Georgia becomes the beneficiary of the rainfall.
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