Weather Service Predicts Strong Hurricane Season
You’ve probably heard this on the news: the Climate Prediction Center has weighed in with its predictions for the 2007 hurricane season, which starts June 1st. The Atlantic Hurricane Outlook calls for a 75% chance of an above normal season, and only a 5% chance of a below normal season. Overall, they predict between 13 and 17 named storms, of which between 7 and 10 will become hurricanes. The predict between three and five of those hurricanes will be category three or greater.
These predictions are in line with what Bill Gray and the Colorado State University center are calling for, and slightly above what Accuweather forecasts. Dr. Gray will update his forecast at the end of the month. The weather service bases its predictions on the current above-normal cycle of activity for hurricanes that has gone on since 1995, and the probability of a La Nina pattern developing later on this summer.
In terms of the numbers, they look very similar to the predictions for the 2006 season, with the main difference being the possibility of La Nina conditions developing. La Nina and El Nino are terms used to describe the Pacific Ocean variances in sea surface temperatures, which are warmer than normal in El Nino years, and cooler than normal in La Nina years. Last year, forecasters failed to see the El Nino conditions that developed in late summer, causing a fairly normal hurricane season. This year’s forecast says that if a La Nina pattern does indeed develop, we are likely to see a hyperactive season, similar to what occurred in 2004 and 2005.
Meanwhile, Accuweather has released its summer forecast. Also citing the possibility of developing La Nina conditions, it calls for warmer than normal weather in the Northeast US, and makes a parallel with the ‘dust bowl’ conditions that occurred in the middle of the 20th century.
For the southeast, the forecast calls for near normal conditions, including precipitation. However, forecasters note that there is likely to be little long-term drought relief until hurricanes or tropical storms arrive later this summer.
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