Dr. Gray’s Latest Forecast Predicts A Strong 2007 Hurricane Season
The team at Colorado State University has released its updated forecast for the 2007 hurricane season, which starts on June 1st. Primarily due to the rapid dissipation of the winter’s El Nino conditions, the number of predicted hurricanes has increased from the forecast made last December.
In many ways, the forecast is strikingly similar to the one made a year ago for the 2006 season. The prediction is now for 17 named storms, and nine hurricanes. Five of those are expected to be major category 3-5 hurricanes.
The difference between this year and last is where the storms might strike. While last year, there was a 64% chance of a storm striking the east coast, this year, the chance is down to 50%. There is also a 49% chance of a storm hitting the Gulf coast, and above average chances of a major hurricane landfall in the Caribbean Sea. Overall, Dr. Gray and his team expect that the season will be almost twice as busy as the long term average.
Dr. Gray admitted that last year’s forecast fell short, primarily because of the unseen El Nino when the forecast was made. In fact, no hurricanes made landfall in the United States during 2006 (although there were a few tropical storms that some forecasters, including Joe Bastardi, thought should have been classified as hurricanes. There have only been two periods since 1945 where no hurricanes made landfall in the US over two consecutive years, and the forecast team doesn’t expect to break that record in 2007.
I’ll report on other hurricane season predictions as they become available.
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