Second Half of February Looks Better Than the First
The recent weather pattern that has led to an unusually cold first half of February is likely to end once we get past this weekend. This morning’s low temperature of 23 degrees here in Lawrenceville was a full 13 degrees below normal, and it looks like we’ll be seeing similar lows through the weekend, as cold Canadian air pushes south in the wake of the blizzard that left some parts of the Northeast US with more than a foot of snow.
There is also a chance of some wintry precipitation on Saturday. The GFS model has been advertising snow for Saturday night in North Georgia since last weekend, although while it will be cold enough, there may not be enough moisture to cause any serious precipitation.
After President’s day, though, the weather picture begins to brighten as the jet stream changes to a flatter pattern. For much of January, a trough, or upper air low pressure, sat over the western US, while a ridge (or high pressure upper air) dominated the eastern half of the country. That allowed the colder air into the west, and kept it from penetrating the east. You can see the result in the map below.
That pattern reversed itself in late January, with a ridge in the west and a trough in the east, and much below-normal temperatures in Georgia. We are still about 3 degrees cooler than normal for the month so far.
The medium range outlook from the 21st through the end of the month calls for warmer than normal temperatures, as the northern jet stream retreats. We’ll be likely to see daytime highs in the sixties, and low temperatures staying above the freezing mark.
Is this winter’s last blast? The Weather Service’s long range outlook for March, which was released today, calls for equal chances of above, below or normal temperatures and precipitation for the eastern half of the country, and it reports that the effects of the El Nino are dying out. All we can do is hope for the best.
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