National Weather Service Says El Nino Is Intensifying
The scientists over at the Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center yesterday released a new report showing that the El Nino conditions are intensifying, and that the predicted wet weather with normal to slightly below normal temperatures for much of the Southeast may be delayed, but is on its way.
That prediction may come as a relief to one reader of this blog, who is concerned that we are in a drought situation. While we are way down in the rainfall department this year, I took a look at the monthly rainfall records for the state, which are summarized here. As per usual, rainfall totals have varied widely, but most of North Georgia is suffering from a rainfall deficit this year, primarily from less than normal rain from the March through July period. August brought more than normal rain, while fall saw more or less normal precipitation.
This has been confirmed to some extent by taking a look at the drought outlook and conditions on the Peachtree City NWS site. While we were in a moderate drought over the summer, that condition no longer exists, and the outlook is for improvement, at least over the southern half of Georgia.
The picture above illustrates the typical weather pattern of an El Nino year. In theory, the polar jet stream stays up north in Canada, leaving the middle of the country warmer than normal, while the Pacific jetstream moves across the southern states, bringing wetter than normal weather to much of the West and the Southeast. The CPC’s El Nino report claims that the effects have begun later than normal (but remember, we’re only one week into meteorological winter), but should intensify over the next few months.
The report also predicts that this El Nino won’t be as strong as some of the ones in the past. I’m also concerned that metro Atlanta is on the edge of the area expected to receive higher than normal rainfall. To sum it up, I don’t see where we’re in a drought situation right now, and once this current cold blast ends next week, we’re going to see some rainfall, which should then be normal to above normal throughout the winter.
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