Dr Gray Predicts a Busy 2007 Hurricane Season
We’re over six months away from the start of the 2007 hurricane season, but that’s not too early for the intrepid forecasters at Colorado State University to issue their first outlook for what we might expect next year.
The Extended Range Hurricane Forecast For 2007 predicts 14 named storms , with seven hurricanes. Three of those hurricanes are likely to be intense category 3, 4, or 5 storms. This compares with normals of 9.6 storms, 5.9 hurricanes, and 2.3 intense hurricanes on average during the 1950-2000 period.
They predict a 64% chance of a major hurricane somewhere along the US coastline, and an above average major landfall risk in the Caribbean.
The above-average forecast still calls for fewer storms than predicted for 2006, although that forecast turned out to be a bust. They are predicting that the El Nino conditions that ultimately reduced the intensity of this year’s season will be gone by the time the 2007 season officially starts on June 1st.
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