Ernesto Could Hit Florida As a Major Hurricane
Hurricane Ernesto continues to gain strength, and with winds estimated at greater than 75 MPH early this morning was upgraded to Category 1 status. Expected to pass between Haiti and Jamaica overnight tonight, and across Cuba on Monday, the hurricane is likely to gain intensity as it crosses the Gulf of Mexico to the west of the Florida Keys.
There has also been a significant change in the storm’s expected path. For the past 48 hours, models have been moving the expected landfall point further east. As of this morning, the National Hurricane Center expects the storm to cross Florida somewhere north of Tampa Bay on Thursday, and emerge near Jacksonville on Friday.
As you can see from the map above, there is still some disagreement among the many forecast models on the exact path and landfall position. However, most of them are ’seeing’ a high pressure system currently over the Rocky Mountains moving southeast during the week and ultimately forcing Ernesto to recurve over Florida.
How will this affect the weather in Georgia? Had the storm continued on the previously forecast path, we might have seen a lot of rain, as the center of the storm could have passed through Alabama and Georgia. The current path threatens the Georgia coast, but reduces the rain threat in North Georgia, since the worst effects of a hurricane are on its eastern side.
This week, we’re going to see pleasant weather during the first half of the week, and then a good chance of rain as the front approaches from the west on Wednesday and Thursday. What we’ll get over the first part of the Labor Day weekend depends on the exact track of Hurricane Ernesto, but the outlook on the holiday itself calls for cooler weather than we’ve seen, with highs only in the low 80s.
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