Weather Service Introduces New Climate Prediction Tools
The National Weather Service has developed some new web-based tools to help people understand and use their three month seasonal forecasts. In the past, the long range forecasts, made over three month rolling periods were distributed in the form of maps showing areas where the temperature was expected to be above or below normal.
Now, they are providing a series of graphs and charts at the local level, which in North Georgia includes Atlanta Hartsfield, Athens, Cartersville, Rome, Newnan, and Gainesville. For example, the chart below shows the probability that the actual temperature will exceed a given temperature.
So, you can see that there is an almost 100% chance that the average temperature will be greater than 68 degrees, while almost a 0% chance that the average will be greater than 74. Because the green forecast line is to the right of the red actual line, overall, there is a greater chance of warmer than normal temperatures from August through October. You can look at the latest 3 month outlook for Atlanta here.
In addition to the Probability of Exceedence graph shown above, they have a number of pie charts and tables to illustrate the data in other ways, including temperature ranges and the chances of temperatures being above or below normal.
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