Dr. Gray Predicts Another Active Hurricane Season
With the start of the 2006 hurricane season less than two months away, Dr. Gray of Colorado State University has released his 2006 hurricane predictions. If Dr. Gray and his team are right, we’re in for another volatile weather season.
For the season, which runs from June 1 through November 30th, Dr. Gray predicts 17 named storms, with 9 hurricanes, 5 of which will be intense, or categories 3-5. In comparison, last year, the center predicted 13 storms, and 7 hurricanes, well under what actually happened. Overall, the probability of hurricane landfall in the United States is 55% above average.
The center predicts an 81% chance of a hurricane striking the US Coast, with a 64% chance of striking the east coast, and a 47% chance of a strike on the Gulf coast. This is strikingly similar to early predictions by Joe Bastardi of Accuweather, who also believes that the east coast is likely to get hit in 2006.
Dr. Gray also addresses the issue of the effects of global warming on the large number of hurricanes we’ve seen over the last several years. Like other hurricane experts, including Dr. Max Mayfield of the National Hurricane Center, he believes that we are at the middle of a long range pattern of greater than normal hurricane activity that began in 1995. This pattern, called the Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation. This phenomenon is driven by the salinity of the Atlantic, and is believed to have nothing to do with global temperature change.
Sphere: Related Content