Stormy Weather Likely on Friday
This weekend is going to be one of those “If you don’t like the weather, stick around for a few hours, and it will change” situations. Tomorrow will start out as a relatively warm day, with highs in the mid 60s, even though the clouds will be thickening as a frontal boundary moves our way.
Behind the front is much colder air, and at the intersection of the two air masses, we are likely to see severe thundershowers, supercells, and the possibility of tornadoes. At this point, the Weather Service has called for a moderate possibility of severe weather tomorrow, however, there is a greater chance of bad weather to our south. The worst of the storms are likely to affect our area between 4 and 6 PM.
The image to the right shows the GFS forecast prediction for Friday (the 13th!) at 7 PM. The dashed lines represent what’s called the 500 millibar thickness — essentially the distance between where the air pressure is 1000 millibars and where the air pressure is 500 millibars. Thickness is essentially a function of temperature and moisture, where greater thicknesses indicate higher temperatures/moisture, and vice-versa. The 540 decameter thickness (the first dashed line shown in blue) is the boundary of polar air, and represents the point where it could, theoretically, snow.
While snow flurries are possible after the main portion of the front passes through, the colder air also has much less moisture than the warm sector, so any flurries shouldn’t amount to anything. We’ll see lows around 34 Friday night, the first time it’s gotten that cold in over a week.
By Saturday morning, it should clear up fairly rapidly. Saturday will be a windy day, with speeds between 25 and 30 MPH. It will be colder as well, with highs in the mid 40s, fully 20 degrees below what we’ve seen earlier in the week.
By Sunday, things start to moderate, with highs approaching 60. The longer-term trend will keep the high temperatures well above average for the next two weeks, perhaps punctuated by the occasional cold snap like we’re seeing this weekend.
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