000
FXUS61 KBOX 080223
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1023 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT BRINGING WARM DRY WEATHER. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUESDAY
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY
DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PRODUCING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDAKS AND GREENS...AND WITH WESTERLIES ALOFT THIS SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS NH AND MAINE AND PERHAPS CLIP MASS NORTH OF THE RTE 2
CORRIDOR. TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 70...THIS LOOKS FINE FOR THE
PROJECTED MIN TEMPS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
MADE TO GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MONDAY. AIRMASS WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. A FEW DIURNAL CLOUDS AROUND ON
MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S.
MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE WHILE LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A WEAK FRONT MAY SINK SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA
WHICH WOULD PRODUCE SOME HIGH CLOUDS LATE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
07/12Z GFS HAS GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE GGEM...ECMWF AND UKMET...SO HAVE
USED IT AS THE TEMPLATE FOR THIS FORECAST. 07/12Z NAM AND 07/15Z SREF
ARE SLOWER...WITH THE SREF THE SLOWEST OF THE TWO.
TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING LOW PRESSURE WILL
PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AT THIS POINT...THE TIMING COINCIDES WITH A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGH AMOUNTS OF SHEAR.
IF THIS SCENARIO VERIFIES...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...
WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE GREATEST THREAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY
AND MENTION THUNDERSTORMS...BUR WILL LIMIT MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER
TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL PRIOR TO THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. DRY...MORE AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY...ALLOWING A WARM
FRONT TO APPROACH. THE TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT THINKING THIS
FRONT WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME MOVING EAST WITH THE OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE. AS SUCH...HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS FRIDAY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE TIMING AND TRACK
ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. HAVE USED THE CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND
00Z ECMWF TO MINIMIZE THE ERROR.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WATCHING A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACHING THROUGH NORTHERN NY WITH
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION 7-8KFT CLOUD DECK AT
KBDL/KBAF/KORH AND KMHT. OF THESE...MHT IS MOST FAVORED TO SEE ANY
CLOUDS. AT THIS POINT...LOWER LAYERS ARE DRY SO NOT EXPECTING PRECIP
TO REACH GROUND...BUT WILL MONITOR.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR...EXCEPT MVFR IN PATCHY FOG LATE AT
NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...THEN MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A
FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 25 KTS IN ALL MARINE ZONES. HOWEVER...
HIGHER SEAS STILL AN ISSUE MAINLY FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
CONTINUING SCA FOR BLOCK ISLAND SOUND UNTIL MIDNIGHT...WITH SEAS
FINALLY SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FEET IN OUTER WATERS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS AND WAVES WILL FALL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND REMAIN THAT WAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ235-250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ254-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR ANZ237.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NMB
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/NMB
