000
FXUS65 KLKN 192247
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
247 PM PST WED NOV 19 2008
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRUSH NORTHERN NEVADA
LATE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS...ALONG
WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEVADA.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL NV
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE ERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...SHOWING IT
PUSHING INTO NRN CALIF AND THE PAC NW THURSDAY MORNING. WITH MAIN
JET MAX REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF NV...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MAYBE A FEW
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS XTRM NRN NV NEAR THE OREGON AND IDAHO
BORDERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY EXPECT SOME COOLER TEMPS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE WEEKEND AND SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS NRN AND ERN NV. LOWERED POP
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND KEPT NEAR 20 PCT POP NEAR THE IDAHO AND
OREGON BORDERS...WELL NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. INCREASED HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WEST OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY...WITH WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
EXPECTED. KEPT HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S INTO THE
WEEKEND AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH IS
STILL 2 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
HOWEVER...WITH VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE STATE AND GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED INTO THIS WEEKEND...EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO BE
SEASONABLY COLD AND GENERALLY IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE NORMALLY COLDER HIGHER VALLEYS ACROSS NRN
ELKO COUNTY DROP TO NEAR 10 DEGS OR IN THE SINGLE DIGITS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
CLIP NORTHEASTERN NEVADA SATURDAY NIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED FROM THIS SHORTWAVE...JUST SOME HIGH TO MID CLOUDS BEFORE
THE SYSTEM EXITS EAST INTO UTAH EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS
OVER THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY FOR CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A TROUGH TO THE WEST
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT HAVE WIDELY DIFFERING SOLUTIONS
WHEN IT COMES TO MOVING THE TROUGH INLAND. GFS MODEL IS QUICKER TO
BRING THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEVADA
MONDAY NIGHT...SPREADING SHOWERS OVER ALL OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF MODEL IS QUITE A BIT SLOWER THAN
THE GFS. THE EC HOLDS THE PRECIP OFF TO THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN SPREADS THE PRECIP INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEVADA
WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...HAVE THE FIRST MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MAINLY JUST THE
MOUNTAINS OF HUMBOLDT AND EXTREME NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. WITH SUCH
DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS FROM DAY 7 ON...WENT WITH CLIMATOLOGY FROM
WEDNESDAY ON INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN NEVADA ON THURSDAY WITH THE MAIN RESULT BEING
INCREASING HIGH TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT
WMC...EKO...ELY OR TPH AIRPORTS FROM THIS WEAK SYSTEM. WINDS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT IN THE LOWEST LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY...HOWEVER
RIDGE TOP WINDS AND AREAS ALONG THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS OF MOUNTAINS
MAY RECEIVE LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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