000
FXUS63 KICT 201142
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
542 AM CST THU NOV 20 2008
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
STOUT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AS TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT COMBINES WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LOW-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION WILL ALLOW PATCHY MVFR CIGS TO FILTER SOUTH THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...AND THESE MIGHT LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...SOMETHING THE MORNING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH. CANNOT
RULE OUT A SNOW FLURRY OR TWO ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
MORNING...AS ZONE OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AFFECTS THE AREA.
THINKING THREAT WILL BE TOO ISOLATED AND LIGHT TO MENTION IN
RSL/SLN TAFS. WINDS WILL SLACKEN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS.
KLEINSASSER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 AM CST THU NOV 20 2008/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGES...HOW CHILLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
LARGE CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...WITH CENTER OF THE HIGH
DRIFTING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
EVEN THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TEND TO RECYCLE THE CANADIAN AIR NORTH ON
FRIDAY. THE NAM/GFS MODEL PROGS OF LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND
POINT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MAXS A BIT COOLER THAN THE MAV MOS
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A BAND OF ALTOSTRATUS CEILINGS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE INTO MIDDAY...AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF DROPPING SOUTH
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THE TRANSIENT LIFT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS
WILL MOVE SOUTH AND AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH
GRADUAL CLEARING IN ITS WAKE TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE COLDEST MINS OF THE SEASON SO FAR...CLOSE TO THE GOING
FORECAST.
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY. MILDER TEMPERATURES WITH MAXS CLIMBING TO
NEAR CLIMO EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY.
LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY.
DARMOFAL
AVIATION...Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
LEADING EDGE OF CAA AND GUSTY NRLY WINDS WAS MOVING THRU SERN KS
LATE THIS EVE. STRATUS SHIELD COMING OUT OF NEBRASKA HAS BROKEN UP
OVER N-CNTRL KS...BUT THERE IS STILL A SOLID AREA FROM NERN KS
INTO IOWA/NRN MO. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THE BRUNT OF THE
STRATUS WILL AFFECT THE AREA EAST OF I 135 OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
THURS...SO HAVE INCLUDED A 4 HOUR TEMPO MVFR CIG GROUP AT
CNU...WITH JUST A SCT DECK ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE GUSTY NORTH WINDS
TO IMPACT ALL SITES THRU THURSDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF EARLY THURS
EVE AS A SURFACE HIGH CENTER BUILDS SWD INTO KS.
JMC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 45 23 43 27 / 10 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 44 20 44 26 / 10 0 0 0
NEWTON 43 22 42 27 / 10 0 0 0
ELDORADO 44 21 42 27 / 0 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 47 23 44 27 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 42 22 45 25 / 10 10 10 0
GREAT BEND 43 22 45 25 / 10 10 0 0
SALINA 43 22 44 26 / 10 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 43 22 44 26 / 10 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 47 22 43 27 / 0 0 0 0
CHANUTE 44 21 42 26 / 0 0 0 0
IOLA 43 21 42 27 / 0 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 45 22 43 26 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
