000
FXUS61 KBOX 272035
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
435 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. A
COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA
EARLY NEXT WEEK PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. REMNANTS OF FAY WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BUT THE HIGH IS EXPECTED
TO PREVENT THAT MOISTURE FROM MOVING INTO THIS AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THIS MORNINGS WITH TEMPERATURES
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS TO THE UPPER
50S IN THE URBAN CENTERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETREAT
SLIGHTLY AS REMNANTS OF FAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. AS NOTED ABOVE...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT FAY WILL AFFECT OUR
AREA. MODELS ALL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A REPEAT OF TODAY/S SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED.
THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AND THE RIDGE MAY RETREAT FAR ENOUGH
NORTH THAT A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
27/12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE SIMILAR GENERALLY NICE LATE
SUMMER WX SOLUTIONS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT DIFFER
WITH THE TIMING OF THE WEEKEND CFP.
DRY HIGH PRES SHOULD RULE THRU FRI AND AGAIN MON-WED NEXT WEEK WITH A
CFP EARLY SUN. /SREF DOES OFFER A SLIGHT POP FRI MORNING FROM THE NE
ALONG THE MASS COAST BUT ATTM NOT APPLYING/
THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE THE PROBLEM OF THE DAY FOR THIS 7 DAY PERIOD.
THE DAILIES... ESSENTIALLY 12Z GFS MAVMOS GUIDANCE TT/TD/WIND/WIND
DIR/SKYCOVER. POPS/WX ARE EXACTLY AS INHERITED FROM THE 4AM PKG...PLS
SEE THE PGH BELOW.
12Z GFS ENS AND THE 09Z SREF OFFER HIGHER POPS THIS WEEKEND THAN KBOX
4AM AND 4PM FCSTS FROM TODAY...HOWEVER DID NOT ACCEPT THIS DUE TO ECMWF
BEING DRY AND THE UK SLOWER. UNTIL WE GET A BETTER FIX/CONSENSUS ON
TIMING...THOUGHT IT BEST TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY. AM NORMALLY NOT TOO
RELUCTANT TO GO FOR THE EVENT...BUT THE PATTERN IS NOT THE USUAL WAA
SHOWER PRODUCER. THE RECENT 10 HR IN-ADVANCE POOR PRODUCING FCST FOR
THE MON AFTN CONVECTION WHICH ENDED UP ONLY CAPE COD IS ANOTHER
REASON FOR REMAINING CLOSE TO OUR PREVIOUS FCST.
THUNDER POTENTIAL IS DECENT...800 ML CAPE FOR CT AT 18Z SAT AND SOME
WEAK BUT FAIRLY ORGANIZED FGEN.
RIP CURRENT OUTLOOK: ATTM NOT AS IMPRESSED WITH THE POTENTIAL AS
PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED.
FOG ADDED TO THE FCST AS PER GRIDDED RH GREATER THAN 97 PERCENT.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...VFR. LCL MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN PATCHY GROUND FOG
ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVER VALLEYS.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH
NIGHTTIME HOURS PATCHES IFR/MVFR FOG/STRATUS.
SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...N WINDS SHIFTING TO NE 10-15KTS WITH SEAS UP
TO 4 FEET.
THURSDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE...MAY SEE SOME NE SWELLS FROM
STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
OUTER WATERS...POSSIBLY BRINGING SEAS UP TO 5 FT THERE.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. A LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA MAY SEND 4-5 FT SWELLS
TOWARD THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS EAST OF MA FRIDAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT SHOULD
CROSS THE WATERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...PROVIDING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/BELK
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DRAG/BELK 434
AVIATION...DRAG/BELK/RLG 434
MARINE...DRAG/BELK/RLG 434
