000
FXUS61 KOKX 071554
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
1154 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND THEN PASS TO
THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY. MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SET UP. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH...SO STAY TUNED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK. MINOR CHANGES MADE IN THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT GRIDS...WILL REFLECT IN UPDATED AFM/PFM.
ZONES WILL BE ALLOWED TO STAND AS IS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
STRONG FAST FLOW BARRELS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...AND THIS ENERGY WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN OVERALL
PATTERN. AS TROUGH TO OUR EAST DEPARTS...RIDGE BUILDS AT ALL LEVELS
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. MID WEST TROUGH WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE
NORTHWESTERN ENERGY...BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH REMAINS WELL
TO THE WEST TODAY. AS SUCH...SUNNY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED. FOLLOWED
A MOS BLEND WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES...BUT UTILIZED HIGH
TEMPORAL RESOLUTION LAV NUMBERS FOR THE HOURLY DETAILS.
IT WILL BE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY AS AREAS OF FROST COVER THE
GROUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE AREA. RIDGE BLOCKS ANY
CLOUDS FROM MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS...AND CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM NYC TO PLUMMET.
POTENTIAL IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE
REGION...AND FEEL MAV NUMBERS HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS.
NAM/MET NUMBERS APPEAR TOO HIGH. AS SUCH...EXPECT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND PINE BARRENS OF
EASTERN LONG ISLAND. SOME LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND WEST WILL DROP
BELOW FREEZING. FREEZE WARNING/FROST ADVISORIES POSTED FOR INTERIOR.
FOR WEDNESDAY...RETURN FLOW SETS UP AS THE HIGH PASSES TO OUR SOUTH.
MID WEST TROUGH FLATTENS A BIT WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY REMAINING TO
THE NORTH IN CANADA. HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO ENCROACH LATER
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS FLOW FLATTENS WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE TROUGH. MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS EXPECTED THURSDAY
AS THE TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASS BY.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. FOLLOWED MOS BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE SOME CONSENSUS DEVELOPING IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...KEEPING
UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN LARGE SCALE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH...AND SFC
LOW/TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH...AND IT
NOW LOOKS LIKE DRIER AIR MOVES IN AS EC/GFS/GGEM INDICATE. WILL
LEAN TOWARD LESS CLOUDS...AND LOWER POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
RESULT.
CONFIDENCE STILL LOW WITH REGARD TO FORECAST DETAILS...AND IT WOULD
NOT TAKE MUCH TO CHANGE THIS FORECAST AS WET WEATHER NOT FAR AWAY TO
THE SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD TOWARD
THE AREA TODAY. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH UNLIMITED VISIBILITIES.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THIS MORNING...THEN
BECOME A BIT MORE WESTERLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF
THE SURFACE BUILDS WEST OF THE TERMINALS. TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL POSSIBLY
BRING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...DEPENDING ON ITS EXACT TRACK. A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
IN THE EXTENDED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA WATERS TODAY. EXPECT A NORTHERLY
FLOW TODAY...THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH
MOVES FURTHER SOUTH. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS
THROUGH THURSDAY.
FOR THE LONG TERM...FORECAST REFLECTS QUIET CONDITIONS FROM THU
NIGHT AND BEYOND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW BEGINNING FRI NIGHT FOR A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST. IF THIS DOES
OCCUR...SCA CONDITIONS IN THE FORM OF HAZARDOUS SEAS COULD OCCUR FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO MAJOR HYDROLOGY CONCERNS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD ATTM. SOME LIGHT
PCPN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ005>008.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ069-070.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ067-068.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC
HYDROLOGY...PW
