000
FXUS63 KMKX 062042
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
342 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008
SHORT WAVE THAT BROUGHT LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES TO MAINLY WRN AND
NRN PORTIONS OF CWA LAST NIGHT IS NEAR SSM. AN INTERESTING SIGN
OF AUTUMN WAS THE BAND OF CLOUDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING
ON VSBY SATELLITE. WITH THE LAKE WATERS AND NEAR SFC AIR TEMPS WARMER
THAN INLAND AIR TEMPS...LAND BREEZE SET UP A NORTH TO SOUTH
CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER THE LAKE...AND PRODUCED THE CLOUD BAND.
TRAILING VORTICITY LOBE FROM EXITING SHORT WAVE ENHANCED THE LIFT
AND POPPED A FEW SHOWERS WITHIN THIS BAND OVER THE ERN SECTION OF
THE LAKE AND LOWER MICHIGAN.
.SHORT TERM...FOR TONIGHT...SIMILAR SITUATION TO LAST NIGHT WITH
SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM SW IOWA ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS.
OPERATIONAL MODELS...AS WELL AS CRAS FORECAST WATER VAPOR LOOPS
TRACK THIS WAVE TO OUR SOUTH KEEPING MOST OF SRN WI DRY.
HOWEVER...NAM FORECAST SNDGS FOR RFD SHOW SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE SO WILL PUT A CHC ALONG THE BORDER FOR
LATE TONIGHT AND A SLIGHT CHC FOR THE REMAINDER OF CWA AS SECOND
WAVE APPROACHES REGION.
ENERGY WITH THIS SECOND WAVE FARTHER NORTH...BUT SOME 850 MB THERMAL
RIDGING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG WITH LOW-MID LVL Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLAY FOR SUNDAY. TWEAKED COOLER
MET NUMBERS DOWN A BIT DUE TO PCPN.
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND WAVE PUSHES 850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO
NRN IL SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING OVERNIGHT. DEEPER MORE DYNAMIC
WAVE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPR LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS
REGION FOR MONDAY. FAVORED NAM MODEL TRACKS SFC AND 850 MB LOW
SOUTHEAST OF WI...CLIPPING THE SE CORNER...PLACING SRN WI UNDER
SHIELD OF STEADY MODERATE RAIN. PCPN MOST LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WITH SLOPED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. AGAIN SIDED
WITH COOLER MET TEMPS FOR TUE HI/S.
.LONG TERM...SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN WAKE OF TROF BRINGS A DRY TUE AND
WED. WAA ADVECTION AHEAD OF ANOTHER DEEP WAVE OVER WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FAR WRN CWA WED
AFTERNOON AND CWA-WIDE WED NIGHT. HAVE HI CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY
WITH TROF...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE HIER POPS IN
SUBSEQUENT RUNS. DRY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BLEND OF MEX/HPC
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CU FIELD WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP
THINGS VFR THROUGH THIS SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS SPREADING ENE FROM IOWA AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE. WILL INCREASE THE
MID CLOUDS DURING THE NIGHT BUT LOW LEVELS...FROM SOUNDINGS/RH
PROGS/MOS...LOOK DRY AND MODELS SUGGEST BULK OF ENERGY/LIFT WILL
STAY JUST SOUTH OF WI. SOME MID LEVEL RH LINGERS INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT/LONG TERM...09
AVIATION/MARINE...10
