000
FXUS63 KFGF 200824
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
230 AM CST THU NOV 20 2008
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS SHORT TERM SNOW CHANCES
AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH PERIOD AND WILL
USE BLEND.
OF FIRST CONCERN IS LAKE AFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL ALONG S SHORE OF
LAKE OF THE WOODS. FAVORABLE UNIDIRECTIONAL NNW FLOW TO CONTINUE
TODAY WITH 15-20 MPH SURFACE WIND SPEEDS. THERMAL GRADIENT FROM LAKE
WATER TEMPERATURE AND ALOFT FAVORABLE AS WELL AS LAKE INDUCED CAPE
FROM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. MAYBE LACKING IS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS
CURRENT SHORT WAVE WILL BE CLEARING FA DURING THE MORNING. THERE ARE
ENOUGH FACTORS TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A WINTER WX ADVISORY AND LATER
SHIFTS CAN ADJUST AS NECESSARY. OVER THE REMAINDER OF FA UPPER
SUPPORT FROM SHORTWAVE AND DEEPER LAYERED RH OVER WESTERN FA PUSHES
THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR AN EARLY
MENTION OF -SN AS BACK EDGE OF RADAR RETURNS ABOUT HALF THROUGH FA.
DRYING/Q VECTOR DIVERGENCE FOLLOWS WAVE WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
DECREASING CLOUDS FROM W-E DURING DAY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN.
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION BOTTOMS OUT WITH EVENTUAL SOLAR ALLOWING FOR
MINOR TEMPERATURE RECOVERY. WILL BE A LITTLE BLUSTERY EARLY HOWEVER
WINDS ALOFT DO WEAKEN ALONG WITH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DURING
DAY.
SURFACE HIGH DROPS SOUTH THROUGH FA OVERNIGHT AND WITH SKC AND LIGHT
MIXING WILL LIKELY SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES THIS FALL.
NEXT SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS
FRIDAY. DEEPER LAYERED MOISTURE...FAVORABLE LIFT WITH WAVE AS WELL
AS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE REMAINS JUST TO OUR W-S.
WILL CONTINUE SOME LOW POPS OVER FAR S-SW AS A BUFFER BUT IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE MAY BE ABLE TO PULL POPS.
MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS INTO ZONAL PATTERN HEADING INTO WEEKEND
WITH MODERATING THERMAL COLUMN.
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND UPPER LOW DROPS THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA INTO
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND SHARP CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL BE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW. NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO LONG
RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...PATCHY MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ALONG WITH --SN
THROUGH AM HOURS. CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM W-E ACROSS FA
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
CST FOR MNZ006.
&&
$$
VOELKER
