000
FXUS66 KPQR 231533
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
832 AM PDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...AN UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN
OVER THE PAC NW TODAY INTO FRI. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP
MOISTURE AROUND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
INTO FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST FRIDAY AND THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BREAK UP INTO A MORE SHOWERY PATTERN. TEMPS WILL
WARM A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND... BUT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
AS WEAK ENERGY MOVES THROUGH. A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK FOR MORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW IS SEEN IN SATELLITE PICTURES OVER WESTERN
WA THIS MORNING. MAIN AREAS OF RAIN AS SEEN IN SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGES EXTENDS FROM THE N WILLAMETTE VALLEY NW TO OFF THE WA COAST.
MODELS SUGGEST SOME CONTINUATION OF RAIN IS LIKELY AROUND THE S PART
OF THE LOW...ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...
BUT FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. THIS FEATURE SHOULD SPREAD MORE RAIN AROUND TO
THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION TO MOST OF
THE FCST AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE WAVE SHOULD
PASS THROUGH TOWARDS DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD BRING AN END TO
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP.
SNOW LEVELS WILL HOVER AROUND 3500 FEET INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE SKI
RESORTS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES EXPECTED TO PICK UP
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES WILL ALSO SEE
SOME SNOW. A COUPLE OF INCHES MAY STICK TO THE ROADS EARLY THIS
MORNING BEFORE ROAD TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...MELTING ANY
SNOW THAT ACCUMULATED OVERNIGHT. SNOW MAY STILL TRY TO STICK AT TIMES
LATER TODAY DURING ANY PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL. THEN EXPECT SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EARLY FRI MORNING AS TEMPS COOL AGAIN.
MOUNTAIN CLIMBING AND HIKING UP IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE HAZARDOUS
THROUGH FRI. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT
THESE HAZARDS.
THE LOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH EAST OF THE REGION ON FRI. EXPECT
THE PRECIPITATION TO TURN MORE SHOWERY AND BROKEN UP. WE MIGHT SEE A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LATER FRIDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO A MORE
DIURNAL SIGNAL TO THE SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPS MAY
REACH 60 IN THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS.
MORE LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON SAT. MODEL UNCERTAINTIES INCREASE
OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE PAC NW WILL REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TROUGHING PATTERN. HOWEVER...ANY SHOWERS
SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AND TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
MODERATE. MID 60S ARE A GOOD BET FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. SUNDAY
LOOKS QUITE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...WITH LIGHT DIURNAL SHOWER CHANCES
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. PYLE
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
THE MODELS SHOW MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEMS ARRIVING ALONG THE WEST COAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANGE FROM INTERMITTENT SHOWERS TO STEADY
RAIN LIKELY DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SNOW LEVELS RISE
SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES STILL REMAINING SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS STILL NO TENDENCY IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST
FOR RIDGING TO RETURN TO THE NORTHWEST. KWELSON
&&
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH RAIN ACROSS REGION THIS AM.
BUT BETTER TO S OF KCVO WHERE HAS BEEN DRIER WITH VFR SKIES. NOT
MUCH CHANGE TODAY...AS ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN ARRIVES IN THE N
AND MAINTAINS STATUS QUO THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z. MIX OF VFR AND MVFR
TO S OF KCVO...BUT LIKELY TO SEE INCREASING MVFR CIGS IN THAT AREA
AFT 19Z. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. CASCADES AND HIGHER TERRAIN
WILL BE PERSISTENTLY OBSCURED IN CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...NOT MUCH CHANGE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH
MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT RAIN. MAY HAVE CIGS IMPROVE A BIT TONIGHT...
BUT STILL HIGHER END MVFR. ROCKEY.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS WERE STILL BOUNCING BETWEEN 9 AND 11 FT THIS AM.
EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUT UNTIL NOON. BY THEN SEAS WILL
FINALLY BY UNDER 10 FT. WITH BROAD LOW PRES STALLED OFF THE WA
COAST AND WEAK PRES GRADIENTS...WITH WINDS MOSTLY 15 KT OR LESS.
LOW PRES WILL MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN FRI AND SAT.
THE NEXT SYSTEM COULD INCREASE WINDS/SEAS LATER SUN OR MON...BUT
STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. NO
CHANGES FOR NOW...AS LOOKS TO BE DECENT POTENTIAL FOR 20 TO 25 KT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH THAT FRONT. ROCKEY.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON TODAY
ON ALL COASTAL WATERS.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
