000
FXUS62 KTAE 211944
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
344 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2008
...FAY TO POSE SIGNIFICANT FLOOD RISK OVER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...TROPICAL STORM FAY IS
FINALLY ON THE MOVE AND IS CURRENTLY MAKING LANDFALL NEAR FLAGLER
BEACH. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST OVERNIGHT WHILE SLOWLY
WEAKENING AND REACH THE EASTERN BIG BEND AFTER SUNRISE. THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK MOVES FAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN APALACHEE BAY
AND THEN BACK INLAND OVER FRANKLIN COUNTY FRIDAY NIGHT. FAY IS
THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE WEST NORTHWEST ALONG THE PANHANDLE
COAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ON THIS TRACK...FAY WILL HAVE A
BRIEF PERIOD OVER APALACHEE BAY AND THERE IS A SLIGHT POTENTIAL
FOR INTENSIFICATION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION
CLOSELY.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL SERIOUS FLOODING APPEAR THE BE THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT THREATS FROM FAY. THE EXACT TRACK AND MESOSCALE
EVOLUTION OF THE RAIN SHIELD WILL LIKELY GOVERN THE EXACT
DISTRIBUTION...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS TO BE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST DECREASING INLAND.
GENERAL AMOUNTS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
IMMEDIATE COAST...10 TO 12 INCHES
I-10 CORRIDOR...8 TO 10 INCHES
EXTREME SOUTH GEORGIA/SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...5 TO 8 INCHES
REMAINDER OF SOUTH GEORGIA...3 TO 6 INCHES
FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WILL UPDATE WITH CURRENT QPF
THINKING.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...ONCE AGAIN THIS WILL
BE A VERY DIFFICULT FCST TO PIN DOWN OVER THE CWA...AS IT BECOMES
NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO FIND A MODEL BACKGROUND FIELD TO USE TO
PROPERLY FIT THE OFFICIAL NHC FCST FOR FAY BEYOND SATURDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FCST FOR
TEMPS...POPS...WINDS...AND QPF...SO THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION AT
THIS TIME WILL BE TO GRADUALLY TREND BACK TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY FOR
ALL BUT WINDS...WHICH WILL BE BASED ON THE LAST PACKAGE WHICH
ACCOUNTS FOR THE REMNANTS OF FAY WELL OFF TO OUR WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...IFR/MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER ALL BUT PFN THIS
MORNING. MVFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE DAY. RAIN BANDS
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM FAY WILL SPREAD FROM EAST TO WEST
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINS ALONG WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE VLD AND TLH TAF SITES.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS ARE RAMPING UP OVER THE EASTERN WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
APPROACHING 25 TO 30 KNOTS BY MORNING. SLOW MOTION OF THE SYSTEM
WILL KEEP WINDS ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 74 83 74 85 73 / 80 100 80 70 60
PANAMA CITY 76 86 75 83 75 / 70 90 80 70 60
DOTHAN 71 84 73 83 70 / 60 80 80 70 60
ALBANY 73 84 73 84 72 / 80 90 80 70 60
VALDOSTA 74 83 74 86 72 / 90 100 80 70 60
CROSS CITY 74 84 74 88 72 / 100 100 80 70 60
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...HOUSTON.
GA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS...
CALHOUN...CLAY...COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...
EARLY...GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...
MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL...
THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER...WORTH.
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...
JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...
WAKULLA.
FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...COASTAL WALTON...GULF...
HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...WASHINGTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO
OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO
DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
CAMP/BARRY/GOULD
