000
FXUS61 KOKX 101804
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
204 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RESULTS IN FAIR SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID-WEEK FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND FULL SUN. TEMPS INTO THE 70S WITH LOW DEW
POINTS. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH A CHANCE THAT A SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL FEATURE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE
AN UPPER LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...THEN LIFTS
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE WARM HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR MILD DAYS AND ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. A STRENGTHENING SFC HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN
CANADA WILL SEND DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS.
SHORT WAVES RIDING OVER TOP THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL DRIVE SOMEWHAT
COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SAT MORNING INTO MON. EVEN
SO...TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS THE BEST COLD
ADVECTION BYPASSES THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ADVERTISED TO GO THROUGH SUN NIGHT LOOKS
TO BE WEAKER OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS AS THE RIDGE ALOFT HAS
TRENDED STRONGER. THIS DAMPENS THE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND KEEPS
ITS FARTHER TO THE EAST. THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA...EVENTUALLY ORIENTING IT N/S THROUGH CT AND LI BEFORE
LIFTING IT BACK AS A WARM FRONT ON TUE. NO RAINFALL IS FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON TUE.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SE CANADA WILL DRAG THE FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA ON WED FOLLOWED BY THE RETURN OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ON
THU.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TROUGH WEEKEND.
NY METRO WINDS FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING PUSH...NORTHWEST LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS WITH CHC THEY COULD BACK TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION...THOUGH THIS APPEARS LESS LIKELY THEN PREVIOUSLY
BELIEVED AND HAS BE DROPPED FROM TAFS.
KJFK MAY DEVELOP A SEA BREEZE. WHILE INCLUDED IN TAF...CONFIDENCE
OF THIS IS LOW TO MODERATE.
OTHERWISE VFR. NO FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
VFR WITH LARGE RIDGE IN CONTROL.POSSIBLE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
WEDNESDAY WITH CHC SHOWERS.
......................................................
...TAF CODE IS CHANGING NOVEMBER 5TH AT 00Z...
PLEASE SEE HTTP://AVIATIONWEATHER.GOV/NOTICE/TAF30.PHP
......................................................
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS SUCH...WINDS
WILL BE RATHER LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 3
FEET OVER THE OCEAN...AND 1 FT OR LESS ACROSS BAYS/HARBORS AND LI
SOUND.
A BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...AND
EASTERLY FLOW TEMPORARILY SETS UP. THESE WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUESDAY. SEAS WILL RESPOND SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...
ALLOWING FOR AREA RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS TO SLOWLY FALL THROUGH
THE UPCOMING SEVEN DAYS.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BS
NEAR TERM...BS
SHORT TERM...BS
LONG TERM...AL
AVIATION...JST
MARINE...PW
HYDROLOGY...DW
