000
FXUS65 KTWC 201625
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST THU NOV 20 2008
.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME
GUSTY WINDS AGAIN FRIDAY. A SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK...AS A SERIES OF
STORM SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...AS WELL AS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...RIDGE DOMINANT WITH SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WE LOOSE SOME OF THE READILY
APPARENT GEOMETRY...BUT HEIGHT AND THICKNESS VALUES REMAIN
UNSEASONABLY HIGH EVEN WITH THE MORE ZONAL FLOW...SO CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE WILL BRING GUSTY EASTERLY
WINDS TO THE AREA AGAIN FRIDAY.
PATTERN CHANGE WITH MULTIPLE BRANCH TRAJECTORIES OFF THE PACIFIC THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN BUCKLES AND THEN AMPLIFIES.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT TIMING A BIG ISSUE.
WE WILL TRY TO FOCUS ON ONE 12 TO 24 HR PERIOD AS BEST WE CAN...BUT
STILL PRETTY FAR OUT. MODEL TIMING IS USUALLY TOO PROGRESSIVE WITH
THESE SYSTEMS THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA INTO THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH BUILDING DOWN THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BRING GUSTY EAST WINDS FRIDAY...WITH
POSSIBLE RED FLAG CONCERNS BEING EVALUATED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/NORTHWEST AT 5-15
KTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. GUSTY
EASTERLY GRADIENT DEVELOPING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT AMENDED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
$$
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
