000
FXUS61 KPHI 070246
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1046 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM HANNA HAS MOVED NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK, BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROCHES BY THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HANNA HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA AND DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA ENDING THE PCPN THAT WAS LINGERING OVER NORTHERN NJ. ALL
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN DROPPED EXCEPT FOR AN AREA FLOOD WARNING FOR
MORRIS COUNTY THAT EXPIRES AT 415 AM. EXCEPT FOR NRN NJ, OTHER
AREAS HAVE ALREADY DRIED OUT. OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL BECOME PC BUT
A NW BREEZE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A WEAK FRONT TO THE NW WILL
DROP THROUGH THE AREA BUT STAY DRY AS IT MOVES THROUGH BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES BUT WITH DECREASING
HUMIDITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WE ONCE
AGAIN USED HPC GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT AND MADE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.
A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY,
MOST LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL WELL OFF TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY IMPACT THE REGION AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR SOME LOCAL MVFR CIG AT MIV 5 MI VSBY AT TTN, VFR
CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO ALL TAF SITES. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE VFR
BY 06Z AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25 KT WILL
CONTINUE TO MIDNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING BY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
ALL TROPICAL HEADLINES HAVE BEEN DROPPED. BUT GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25
KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT SO SCA HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE
OF THE STORM FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AT THAT TIME. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST
IS SLATED TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN THE FRONTAL ZONE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
&&
$$
