000
FXUS63 KTOP 201136
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
536 AM CST THU NOV 20 2008
.UPDATE...
UPDATE FOR 12 UTC AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
POSTFRONTAL MVFR STRATUS HAS RECENTLY LEFT THE TOP/FOE
TERMINALS. AM NOT EXPECTING ITS RETURN...BUT WOULDNT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE BRIEF SCATTERED AMOUNTS PASS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.
CLOUDS SHOULD BE OF MID TO HIGH VARIETY THIS MORNING...WITH
SLOW CLEARING OCCURRING FROM LATE MORNING ON. NORTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THEN DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CST THU NOV 20 2008/
DISCUSSION...
STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE AREA. NOT
EXCITED ABOUT WARMING POTENTIAL TODAY WITH ANOTHER MID LEVEL DECK
OF CLOUDS POISED TO MOVE IN AND REPLACE THE LOW LEVEL DECK
CURRENTLY OVER THE EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES. WENT COOL WITH HIGHS
AROUND 40. KEPT STRONGER GUSTS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 FOR
THE MORNING HOURS AS LEADING EDGE OF FRONT AND PRESSURE RISES
SLIDES SOUTHWARD. SOUNDINGS SHOW THIN CLOUD DECKS AROUND 4000 AND
10000FT AGL...WITH HIGHER DECK BARELY IN THE -10C RANGE. WITH
GREATER THAN 5000FT BETWEEN THEM...THINKING SOUNDINGS ARE TOO DRY
FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLURRIES TODAY.
CENTER OF THE 1041MB HIGH SLIDES INTO CTRL KS BY 06Z...THEN OVER
EAST CENTRAL BY 12Z. WITH ANTICIPATED CLEARING...EXPECT A COLD
NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS. GFS QUICK TO SLIDE THE HIGH
EAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY THANKS IN PART TO INCOMING
SHORTWAVE...BUT ALSO NOTING MID LEVEL TEMPS SLOWER TO RESPOND AND
HAVE GONE TOWARDS COOLER HIGHS ONCE AGAIN NEAR THE 40 MARK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD MAINTAIN SOME STRENGTH WITH THE PASSING
UPPER WAVE.
FOR SATURDAY...NAM JUST A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH THE WAVE
AND CONSEQUENTLY WARMER TEMPS BEHIND IT. WENT IN BETWEEN THE TWO
FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY AS NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN ONE SPEED OVER
THE OTHER. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND CURRENT PROGS SUGGEST ANOTHER MILD DAY FOR SUNDAY
AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT THAT SLIDES INTO NW AND NC KS IN THE
AFTERNOON. 50S POSSIBLE IF TIMING REMAINS THE SAME. GFS AND ECMWF STILL
DROPPING LIGHT QPF OVER SE KS IN THE AFTERNOON LIKELY AS A RESULT
OF WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. COVERAGE LOOKS LIGHT BUT SAW NO NEED
TO REMOVE AT THIS TIME. MADE NO CHANGES BEYOND SUNDAY. 67
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
65
