000
FXUS63 KIND 141037
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
635 AM EDT SUN MAR 14 2010
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 141200Z TAF ISSUANCE. DISTURBANCE
ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS...SO RAIN AFFECTING MAINLY THE EASTERN
TERMINALS SHOULD TAPER OFF BY 141500Z. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS NOTED IN THE RAIN AREAS. IFR CEILINGS
006-009 ABOVE GROUND LEVEL BECOMING LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME AS
BOUNDARY LEVEL BECOMES MORE MIXED AND SOME DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTH. IFR CEILINGS SHOULD AFFECT KIND/KBMG FOR
THE MOST PART THIS MORNING IN THE PRECIPITATION AREAS...WITH THESE
CONDITIONS DISSIPATING AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. BASED ON UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS...CEILINGS SHOULD SETTLE TO AROUND 015 FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY.
MODEL WIND FIELDS SUGGESTS SURFACE WIND GUSTS 15-20KTS PROBABLE FROM
360-020 HEADINGS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 141500Z AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP IN THE WAKE OF SURFACE TROUGH.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW LONG TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES AS UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINA'S MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
RADAR SHOWS ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND
NORTHEAST INDIANA IS POISED TO ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION AND IT
SHOULD BY MID MORNING. MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE LIGHT RAIN
THROUGH 8 AM AND MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS AFTER THAT.
WITH A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION AND QUITE A BIT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS REST OF TODAY
AND WILL MENTION LOW CHANCES TONIGHT ACROSS OUR EASTERN TWO THIRDS.
MODELS SHOW SOME SUBSIDENCE TONIGHT...BUT LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE.
NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH LATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED WILL GO WITH A MOS BLEND TODAY
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE WARMER MET TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS CLOUDS
CONTINUE. THERE COULD BE PARTIAL SUNSHINE LATE MONDAY WHICH MAY
ALLOW SOME AREAS TO REACH 50.
WEAK UPPER RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY AND
AIRMASS IS MUCH DRIER SO WILL INCREASE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE A
LITTLE.
GFS AND GEM MODELS BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WILL ADD MORE
CLOUDS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FAR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST.
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE QUIET UNTIL DAY 7 AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. GFS AND EUROPEAN STILL INDICATE A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR REGION BY NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...JH
AVIATION...JAS
