000
FXUS63 KIND 231036
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
636 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY
ACCOMPANIED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS
TODAY AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO PROVIDE A BREAK FROM THE
RECENT UNSETTLED WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST TODAY. UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY
SWING THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL BRING THE SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY NOT RISE MUCH IN THE NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA TODAY
AS THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. SOME
OPPORTUNITY FOR WARMING WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED THICK LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER SWEEP INTO THE AREA.
THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SPARK SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
LATE THIS MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS...AND SOME VERY WEAK INSTABILITY MAY BE PRESENT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES HARDLY EVEN
REGISTER IN THE 100-250 J/KG RANGE...AND EVEN THIS MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. WHILE AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SHOCKING...ESPECIALLY IF SOME
MIXING OCCURS AND CREATES SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...THIS
SEEMS UNLIKELY AND LOW PROBABILITY ENOUGH TO CARRY ONLY SHOWERS
AND NO THUNDER MENTION.
A MOS CONSENSUS BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY AND WITH A TIGHTENED GRADIENT
APPEARS BEST ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...AND AGREES WELL WITH UPSTREAM
MAXES. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
BEYOND A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LINGERING SHOWER IN THE FAR
EASTERN FORECAST AREA JUST PAST 00Z...SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE NIL AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE REGION.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THIS ALONG
WITH ONGOING COLD ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AMPLE SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS DURING THE
DAY TO EXCEED GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE OR TWO. MIN TEMPS SHOULD WARM
GRADUALLY BUT NOT QUITE AS FAST AS GUIDANCE DEPICTS WITH ONLY SOME
LIMITED MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER TO INHIBIT OVERNIGHT COOLING
LIKELY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
MODELS DO WANT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT QPF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT ALONG A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTING INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT VERY DRY LOW LEVELS...AND
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE A STRUGGLE WITH MIDLEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. MAY VERY WELL SEE SOME
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR AND ESSENTIALLY NIL INSTABILITY...THIS
ACTIVITY WOULD BE UNLIKELY TO PERSIST THIS FAR EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 152 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAKING ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA FROM THE NW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHICH COULD POSSIBLY BRING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. SEEING AS WE WILL
STILL HAVE A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE AREA CONFIDENCE IS STILL AS TO
WHETHER THIS WILL PAN OUT. LEFT POPS AT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
(20-30%). DRY AGAIN MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE AND THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE
LOW 80S BY WED.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 231200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 625 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
TAFS BECOMING MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING AND THEN VFR BY
LATE THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ROTATE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. LOWER CEILINGS
WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA LATE THIS MORNING.
LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO OCCUR. AS THE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ROTATES ON TO THE SOUTHEAST. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AND RAPID CLEARING POSSIBLE
TOWARDS END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IN SOME AREAS.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 15 KNOTS BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ON TO THE
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF
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